It's time to continue our betting adventures. Today, I have some starting positions that I took not paying attention to the odds so I advise you not to follow my play. If you want to play it smart read this post by @costanza. Let us begin!

The Model's Picks

As usual, the two columns you should pay attention to are PinOdds and MyOdds. As a general rule if MyOdds > PinOdds I'll back that selection.

This gameweek, the model is mostly in agreement with the market in all but the two cases:

  1. Crystal Palace to win @4.24 instead of the favorite Wolverhampton
  2. Burnley to win @4.08 instead of the favorite Huddersfield

Also, it's worth noting that the model considers Manchester City to be much bigger favorite to win than the market does: @1.47 instead of @2.06.

With that being said, here is my starting position:

My Starting Bets

If you look at the odds, you'll see that I'm not doing my best. A few factors can explain that: my model's calculations, the inconsistent performance of the most teams, the offers on the market at the time of writing this post, but mainly my hangover. In short, you should probably skip these bets.

As you can see, I've followed the model's picks in all but these:

  1. Newcastle or Draw @2.465 (Instead of Manchester United to win)
  2. Draw or Southampton @4.123 (Instead of Chelsea to win)
  3. Draw or Fulham @3.513 (Instead of Arsenal to win)

I've been close to oppose Tottenham to win @1.460, but I decided to back it even though the odds that I've got are slightly shorter than that of my model.

I'll be placing more bets during the day and you can follow the rest of my action in our #chat. If you haven't started doing so yet, come and join us.

Happy New Year and good luck!