The overall Bankroll Management approach I have had the past 15 years as a sports bettor has become something I trust blindly and follow almost religiously. It allowed me to grow from an initial tiny investment and kept me from going broke in times where I was no longer profitable allowing me the needed time to step up my game.
Most people who get into sports betting are blinded by potential short term profit which often makes it a matter of time before they lose it all blaming it on bad luck. Having a long term plan and sticking to it can be an extremely powerful tool to beat bookmakers. The basic idea my bankroll management has been based on the past 15 years is the following.
- BET ~1.25% FLAT STAKE
- MOVE UP WHEN YOUR BANKROLL HAS GROWN 25%
- MOVE DOWN WHEN YOU DROP TO PREVIOUS LEVEL
If you manage to beat the market with +3% ROI betting on average 11 bets each day and do this for 10 years, the compound interest using this bankroll management would grow 80€ to over 41.000.000€
There is off course a big gap between the theory and actually being able to do this. (Skill, Variance, Betting Limits, Living Expenses,...) The theory does instantly show the potential when you think about sports betting in the long run though. It can shift you focus towards just beating the market without having to worry about anything else.
Thinking in Units
Having a proper bankroll management plan helps you to think in units. One of the reasons most sports bettors apply very destructive bankroll management and go broke eventually is because they want to win a lot with a tiny bankroll and think in euro or dollars. Switching to a mindset from thinking in currency to units and approach it as an investment instead of a way to gamble is essential in becoming a winning player. Thinking in units also helps a lot when stakes get higher avoiding poor decision making because of scared money.Making Personal Adjustments
The basic idea of betting 1.25% while moving up in stakes after growing 25% allows for personal adjustment depending on a lot of variables.Volume
Quality vs Quantity is a very difficult question to answer when it comes down to sports betting. One thing is for sure though, you need a big sample size to overcome short variance.
Low Volume
Being more selective with your bets can increase your overall ROI, but is does not really change the short term luck that is involved with betting. If you look at the bigger picture, when you take only 20 bets each month, this will become a 10.000 bet sample eventually. The fact that this is happens over an exponential longer time does not mean you can adjust your stakes exponentially. I believe everything above 1.5% is an unacceptable high risk regardless how low the amount of bets your have.
High Volume
It is possible to have 3000+ bets with a profit expectation in the course of a month. Betting those at 1.25% flat would practically be impossible because you can at max bet 80 at one given time. The rule I have when it comes down to higher volume is that you should never have more than ~50% of your bankroll at risk at once. Let's say you have 80 units at risk and go on a crazy -50 unit downswing (believe me they happen). All of a sudden you lost over 60% of your bankroll without having had the chance to adjust your stakes and move down.
Variable Staking
While flat betting is easy, it might not always be optimal. The 1.25% can be seen as a full flat stake and you can use variable stakes around that number based on odds, volume, expected edge. This model is mainly based on 1.80-2.5 type odds. Winning players tend to avoid lower odds and higer odds can be bet "to win flat stake" instead of "to risk flat stake"
Risk
You can change your numbers based on the risk you are willing to take. I am using some of my bitcoin holdings as a betting bankroll. I slightly changed the basic bankroll management idea to make it all less risky. Very low volume with only 10-40 bets each month while only taking them with 1% flat stakes.
Online / Offline Bankroll Ratio
You generally don't need to have your entire bankroll online on your bookmakers to take all the bets you want. When having a long term approach in betting, a big part of your bankroll is like a pillow to fall on in case things go really bad. Instead of letting it just sit in the bank, it can be responsibly invested into the stock or cryptocurrency market. When this comes along with an increaded risk (crypto), betting stakes should be lowered to compensate. It is important that the offline funds in the end are committed towards sports betting, you should never count money that you are not willing to lose in your bankroll management.
Moving Up Table
Following this type of bankroll management has a lot of benefits. It is impossible to ever go bust this way even if you go from being a winning player to becoming a losing player. It allows for time to adjust your strategy which will be needed as the sports betting market is changing all the time and getting more difficult to beat. The ability to chase losses or go crazy on a bet also is not really possible when you commit to your bankroll management. At the same time the growth potential when having a positive expected value is insane. With 11 bets on average each day and a +3% expected ROI, it takes 2 months to increase your bankroll by 25% and move up in stakes. At the lower levels this may seem slow, but once you are able to move up towards the higher levels it is actually insane.
Having this bankroll management for me is extremely liberating and it allows me to just focus on being profitable without having to worry about anything else. I can honestly say that I am looking forward to losing 100k in a single day while using this kind of bankroll management since this would mean that I could actually handle it financially.
Let me know what Bankroll Management you are using in the Comments
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