Betting Wisdom | #11 Make A Solid Plan

I have been Betting on Sports on a Daily basis in the last 15 years and picked up a lot of valuable lessons along the way that help me to beat this market. This series of posts focusses on some of these fundamentals...

MAKE A SOLID PLAN !

One of the the things that differentiates long term winning from losing players is the fact that the ones who manage to actually beat the market tend to follow a plan they made to achieve this almost religiously. This plan is often thought through deeply and involves a lot of effort to execute it properly.

The beauty about the sports betting market is that there are a lof of different ways to beat it. Some ways it can be done...

• Basic Handicapping by being on top of a specific league.
• Using a statistical approach running models to predict game outcomes.
• Reading the market without actually looking at any of the matches.
• Exploiting bookmaker leaks (mostly possible with small limits)
• Finding specifit Situational spots that are profitable.
• Following Others
• Combination of the above.
• ...

There are many aspects to making a plan and executing it.

1. Having +EV Bets
   In order to beat the market you first need to find bets that have a positive return expectation. Any the ways that are listed above can be used to do so. Knowing that bets are actually profitable usually takes a lot of time, often is very uncertain and most people highly overestimate themselves in this regard. Especially when betting on bigger leagues with high limits, the skill needed to be profitabe can be compared to playing a high stakes poker game against guys like Phil Ivey and Tom Dwam. Everyone can get lucky in the short run, but to actually beat these leagues you need to as good as the big sharp players.
   
2. Staking Plan
   Most sports bettors would go broke over time even if they were sure to have bets with a profit expectation because they lack proper bankroll management. The ups and downs can be huge in Sports Betting and a bad run can easily wipe you out if you are too agressive on your staking plan. Making a realistic plan and following it closely will highly increase your chance to be profitable over time. I wrote an entire article on my personal Bankroll Management that I have been able to count on for many years and never let me down.
   
3. Record Keeping
   Once you believe to have found a way to get the profitable bets along with a longer term staking plan, it is of vital importance to start keeping a very close record on it all. This will allow you to see how likely it is that you are actually beating the market. Understanding volume and how many bets are needed to actually see if something is profitable and not just luck or bad luck is important and it can litirally takes years to achieve this. The variance is one of the most difficult aspects in betting since your are pretty much always in the dark guessing something will work or not. I wrote about the importance of record keeping and how not knowing your numbers most of the time will mean you are down.
   
4. Keeping Discipline
   Not having a clear plan will most of the time at some point lead to chasing losses. Even when having a pre determined plan, it can be hard to stick to it. Doing all the needed work, sticking to realistic stakes and continuing to keep a record during a bad streak staying honest to yourself can be extremely difficult for most people. Platforms like Steemit and Scorum can be highly effective when it comes down to all this while at the same time it allows you to get in contact with likeminded people and potentially earn you an extra source of income over time when doing everything properly.
   
5. Making Changes
   Getting to a point where you become a profitable sports bettor and maybe make it into a profession is a very bumpy road with a lot of ups and downs that constantly asks for changes. The markets evolve and something that was profitable 5 years back might no longer work today. I experienced this myself many years back when these markets were a lot easier to beat. Being part of a couple closed forums with other more serious handicappers who posted their picks used to be a goldmine and allowed me to grow quickly. The markets changed and many of these guys slowly became losing players which caused me to follow a lot of -EV bets for a while. When overall results following others no longer showed an edge it was quite though to change my overall approach and it probably took me a bit too long thinking it might just have been random variance. Thanks to a solid bankroll management plan it was no issue to survive this period.
   

My Personal Betting Plans

I have a couple betting plans myself that I'm currently executing.

• Handicapping the Belgian Teams
  This is pretty much my bread and butter and I still highly enjoy it after all these years. My way of handicapping is based on everything above and I always try to on top of this league when it comes down to knowlege, stats, situational spots & reading the market. I'm very realistic when it comes down to my Bankroll Management & use Steemit, Scorum and Discord as a way to keep myself sharp with a tight posting schedule.
  
• BTC Betting
  About a year ago I discovered Nitrogensports and made a plan on how to take advantage and beat them (See post Beating Nitrogensports). So far this was executed exactly as planned and is showing some solid profit.
  

• Wagerr Betting
  Wagerr is one of the first blockchain projects to offer Sports Betting. I have invested a bit into it last year and now started using their platform recently. Right now there should be a fairly easy way to beat them by exploiting the model they use. I'm still figuring out an exact plan on how to do this which is the reason I got to this article today. I will be making a monthly update post on these bets and continue to post them in the private part of our Discord channel for now. I'm still looking into what the best course of action stake wise is and how much of my WGR I'm willing to risk though.
  

Summary

Previous Posts in This Series...
#10 Volume is Key
#09 Differene Between Following and Handicapping
#08 Holding Yourself Accountable
#7 Don't bet Against Sharp Money
#6 Don't bet Accumulators
#5 Being Willing to Lose
#4 Knowing Your Betting Record
#3 Shopping For The Best Odds
#2 Pulic Underdogs
#1 You Don't Have To Bet

Let me what your betting game plan is in the comments!