The Belgian Jupiler League is 1/3 into regular season right now. I always take a step back during the international breaks and take the time to go through all the numbers and the personal statistics I keep. Even though this is not my favorite thing to do, it is important to stay ahead. Just going with the flow during the season without putting in some extra work can get you behind at some point which I want to avoid. Today I will be ranking all teams based the over / under stats against the asian total lines.
Highest Goal Teams
Different teams tend to have different qualities and play styles. This will largely determine how many goals on average can be expected. These are the teams with the most goals on average in the league.
So far this season the trend shows quite some goals with an average of 3.01 for each match. Previous seasons this was a bit lower so I'm expecting the average to come down a bit still.
Season 2017-2018 | 2.84
Season 2016-2017 | 2.70
Season 2015-2016 | 2.85
Season 2014-2015 | 2.72
Something that can be noticed is that some teams have a hige gap between the amount of goals in their home and away matches. This often is overlooked and can be exploited on the betting market. Cercle Brugge and Kortrijk are far more overish teams at home while Waasland and Stvv are the other way around.
Most Profitable Teams (vs asian Over Line)
Similar to the asian handicaps, the statistics on teams actually beating the lines is more important to me compared to the amount of goals. Most of the time the totals are adjusted similar to the amount of average goals a team can have. This can make a high scoring team lose you money by betting overs. Also the overall stats are often highly influenced by one time crazy high scores.
Based on profit made by blindly betting on the overs for each team, it can be seen that the teams with more goals managed to cover their assigned asian over lines while the teams with a limited amount of goals failed to do so in general. The totals tend to get slowly adjusted over time while some teams also change things up which breaks their average amount of goals. These alongs with the gap between home/away total results are the aspects where you can find a good edge betting wise.
The teams for me to look out for are...
AA Gent are a bit a surprise to me to be on the top and I see it as more of a random event where a lot if late goals caused these results instead of them actually being an over team. They have a new coach which pretty much throws the stats out of the window.
Antwerp They have been very much an under team but now have a lot more offensive uptions and changed their style around which makes me lean more towards overs now on their matches.
Racing Genk With the winter slowly approaching they might have difficulties playin their style while lines are starting to get really high (Over 3.5 now this weekend at home vs Waasland). Betting unders in some of their matches might become an option.
Eupen they have been having some defensive issues but slowly seem to become more solid on that regard. Soon Unders might become an option on their matches.
Other Total Stats
Some other statistics that can be used to find edges on the betting markets are the difference between amount of goals in the 1st half and the 2nd half along with the number of late goals.
So far the ratio 1H/2H Goals in the belgian League is around 37% / 63% and the teams highest on this 2H over ratio are Standard 70% | Oostende 81% | Lokeren 75% | Stvv 70%
67.5% of the matches saw at least 1 more goal after minute 72' and the teams with highest amount of late goals in theor matches are AA Gent 90% | Genk 80% | Zulte-Waregem 90% | Oostende 90% | Lokeren 90%
I plan to look deeper into other league statistics tomorrow and will be back on friday with full previews and bets from the Belgian Jupiler League.
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