I'm making these weekly posts as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will usually contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.
The 2nd week in the league was very similar to week 1, most ideas were quite good but I still ended up with a small loss because of variable stakes/limits and a couple of last-second goals that went against me. Genk Socred in the last seconds of the 1st half against play and Standard did the same screwing up my 1H under bets, Anderlecht had 1 huge chance in the first half which was kicked off the line by a player.
I did get the over on Anderlecht totally wrong though as that match showed to be brutally boring aside from the first 15 minutes where Anderlecht similar to the first match created some good pace.
Overall I can't really be dissatisfied and if I manage to keep things going like this profit will come. Most closing lines also ended drastically lower compared to what I managed to get which is one of the best indicators there are. The AA Gent over 3.25 I managed to get @ 2.39 while it closed at 2.00 turning out in an easy winner.
I do tend to struggle with matches where the big favorite takes the early lead when it comes down to live betting. I just can't bet of the favorite handicap and find it hard to estimate if it will turn out in a real walkover or if the team that got behind will be able to score and keep the goal gap withing distance. I'll be taking more notes on this hoping to crack that code one day.
Pre-Game BTC Bets The bets I shared on Twitter (@costanzabets) and in my preview posts where I take a bit extra on in BTC ended up going 2W-1L. The winners (Club Brugge -1.25 @ 1.81 (6-0) & AA Gent vs Eupen Over 3.25 @ 2.39 (6-1) ended up as easy winners while the Moeskroen vs Anderlecht 1H Over 1 @ 1.80 (0-0) lost but could have ended up as a push. I already have 1 early bet up for Week 3 in BTC with Waasland-Beveren +0.75 @ 1.89 taken at Sportsbet.io. This was also shared on Twitter & Discord at the time of taking yesterday.
I continue covering all the matches live on the SBC Discord. At times, I also include bets I take just before Kick-off based on pre-game coach interviews or line-ups. The Standard vs Zulte-Waregem under was one of those. A first-minute goal really screwed things up on that one though. It looked like things were starting to turn around on the live bets but a late 1H goal turned a potential big win into a push.
Discord Live-Bets Week 2
Standard vs Zulte-Waregem Under 3.5 @ 1.943 FT 4-0 LOST
Oostende 1st Half +0 @ 1.77 (3' 0-0) HT 2-1 WON
Kv Mechelen 1H +0 @ 2.42 (12' 0-0) HT 1-1 PUSH
Anderlecht 1st Half +0 @ 1.70 (5' 0-0) PUSH
Waasland +1.75 @ 1.87 (1-0 9') FT 4-1 HALF LOST
I have kept my stakes fairly low but have actually picked up some confidence in the past 2 weeks despite being down a bit. The season is long and swings in betting can be relentless which is why I always keep a longer-term results graph which puts things much more into perspective compared to what it is right now this season. I will continue going about it 1 match at a time doing what I can to find the edges.
Let me know your own betting results from last week in the comments or post a link with them and I'll make sure to give it an upvote!
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