I'm making these weekly posts as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will usually contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.
The same trend continued in week 3 of the regular season with most ideas and spots I get myself into being quite good actually while results aren't yet showing. The Pre-Game bets I took extra on in BTC continue to perform strongly now at 6W-1L-0P this season good for +0.0469 BTC so far and live bets also started to pick up this week. It has been the many bets in between especially the ones on the Europa League qualifiers that cost me so far. I still do think most of them were you good though so for now, I will just continue to grind away at them and make a conclusion that might change my overall approach a bit more toward the selective bets going forward.
I always prioritize avoiding being down a lot compared to wanting to win as much as possible. This had me reduce my stakes a bit for now while at the same time increasing the number of bets getting in on positions over time to limit the risk. While this is not optimal purely numbers-wise, it does help mentally. While it should not be like this in the perfect world, the mindset when going into a betting weekend being 10 units down compared to being break even or 10 units up is all different and has an influence on the results. So I rather give up some potential profit right now it this means I'm lowering the risk of losses. when up 10 units it is far easier to take a little bit more risk mentally.
For now, I'm still in survivor mode limiting my stakes and looking at one match at a time trying to get into as many good betting spots that I can taking the variance that comes along with it.
I have been using copytip as a way to track both the posted pre-game bets I take extra on along with the Live Bets I share on the SBC Discord taking a symbolical 10€ extra on them there. So far I'm quite positive about that platform and it has actually been a good experience from a tipster point of view. I do see the fees for the ones who want to follow automatically as a bit too high to really make it work. If anything, taking them there also gives a bit exposure to my Steemit & Scorum Blog. I do plan to continue using them all season long.
The SBC Discord Live-Betting channel is growing and has become a bit more active which is quite enjoyable. I think it could be a great place for bettors to follow some of the matches and get good info/bets to take live. If it continues to grow we will probably have to introduce some clear rules to keep everything organized. Posted live bets did great this week going 4W-1.5L-2.5P
Discord Live-Bets Week 2
Kv Mechelen +0.75 @ 1.96 (26' 0-0) WON
Anderlecht -0.25 @ 2.05 (85' 0-0) HALF LOST
Oostende 1H +0.25 @ 1.92 (29' 0-0) HT 0-0 HALF WON
Cercle Brugge 1H +0 @ 2.02 (11' 0-0) HF 1-0 WON
Waasland 1st Half +0 @ 2.42 (33' 0-1) HT 0-1 PUSH
Kv kortrijk -0.25 @ 1.970 (20' 1-0) FT 1-3 WON
Antwerp +0.25 @ 1.82 (2' 0-0) FT 2-1 LOST
Moes vs Gent ck Over 8.75 @ 2.01 (77' 1-6) FT 2-7 HALF WON
This week was somewhat of a roller coaster going down to -3 units in the mid-week to get back in the green at the end of Saturday to go down a bit again on Sunday. It is still very early on and I'm still very close to the pink expected profit line.
Let me know in the comments how your own betting week was!