This is a weekly overview of my personal sports trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.
I started this week very uninspired as the high number of matches combined with the oftentimes strange results had worn me down a bit. I only had a couple of bets in the Europa League because I was overly paranoid since so many results have been strange. I had to remind myself that sometimes it's ok to just bet the better team as the favorite as all results in Europe pretty much turned out very straight forward.
The way fatigue for the teams that play Mid-Week matches has an influence on results is an interesting topic at the moment. It is clear that it somehow got calculated into the lines which Club Brugge getting high odds on the -1.5 Line, Antwerp being the rather big underdog against Anderlecht, Standard getting -0.5 even money line at home. The only exception was a struggling AA Gent getting a -1.25 away line assigned which turned out in an easy 1-4 win. Club Brugge lost points to Mechelen after simply not playing with enough drive, Anderlecht somehow ended up winning against Antwerp who never really got into trouble but also lacked freshness, Standard took a flattering 1-0 win in the end.
The longer you are in betting, the more you grow to respect how insanely well the odds are being set. Putting aside your personal view taking the way the lines are set as part of your overall estimation is (at least for me) a key factor in being able to beat the market.
Week 11 was a bot of a roller coaster as I took a hit on the Anderlecht vs Standard match despite being able to get an excellent price on my bets. I pretty much nailed the preview of the last match of the week and managed to get some really nice profit from that one to somehow still put me in the green on the week.
The bold Pre-Game bets continue to do very well. There is a sample of 100+ bets with +17.86% ROI which is pretty overextended I would say. It is a nice indication that the overall ideas are good but there is no way that this ROI is sustainable in the long run. The purpose of these bets is also mainly as information and not as something to follow blindly even though I do believe in the long run they should be +EV.
I had to take Antwerp +0 @ 2.50 as an official bet this week on Copytip and the SBC Discord Channel and I'm quite pleased with the bets despite it turning out in a loss. The odds dropped a lot overnight which is always the best indication in betting to measure long-term profit expectations. If you consistently beat the closing line you will make a profit, if the closing line is going against the odds you got, you will likely be in a lot of pain.
Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021
01/10/2020 Antwerp +0 @ 2.500 FT 1-0 LOST
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON
The units lost on the Antwerp match and the units won on the Zulte-Waregem match clearly show in the graph this week. Also, the correction to the downside shows how quickly it potentially can go down again. We are still fairly early on in the season and a lot can happen. Overall I'm quite pleased with the +5.92% ROI I'm at right now and plan to just keep grinding away at it match-by-match and week-by-week. I'm still trying to get my average stake up