I'm making these posts weekly as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will always contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.

This was probably my my worst week not only results wise but also performance wise. It started on tuesday when I always take a day to go home to my family. The Champions League Match between Monaco and Club Brugge had an ealy kick and it was impossible to get back in time behind my setup where I usually watch hand bet on matches. So I ended up watching the match at my parents place with my laptop on my taking a bunch of garbage bets mostly just to make things more exciting. It added up to 6 bets with a total stake of 3.298 units of different positions causing me to lose 1.652 units. Another good lesson learned I guess and I won't be doing that again. I have rather agressive betting style in the amount of bets I take on limited amount of matches each week. When done properly it really creates a lot of volume, but it comes at a cost of potentially getting punished when the focus is not 100% . This was obviously the case this week.

15 Weeks into the league most teams have quite the accurate valuation on the market and the edge needs to be found elsewhere in more situational spots. The International break comes at a perfect timing. I will have a some time off to refresh and hopefully break the slight downwards cycle.

Unlike my personal betting, everything that was posted actually performed quite good. Krasnodar won 2-1 Against standard and won the only pre-game posted bet I had this week (See Post). The live bets that were shared on Discord also did well. I did hedge out part of those positions though which is part of the reason for the difference in my personal results this week.

Discord Live-Bets Europa League

Anderlecht 1st Half +0 @ 2.46 (15' 0-0) PUSH
Anderlecht +0.5 @ 2.00 (2' 0-0) LOST
Besiktas 1st Half +0.25 @ 1.85 ( 0-0 15') WON

Discord Live-Bets Belgian League

Oostende 1H +0.25 @ 1.74 ( 22' 1-0) HALF WON
Club Brugge 1H +0 @ 1.78 (0-1 30') LOST
Lokeren 1H +0.25 @ 1.79 (17' 0-0) HALF WON
Eupen vs Stvv Under 3.25 @ 2.05 ( 0-1 17') LOST
Anderlecht vs AA Gent Under 2.75 @ 2.04 ( 1-0 39') WON
Standard +0.25 @ 1.913 (16' 0-1) WON
( Personal Results Graph Season 2018-2019 )

The last month has mostly been just a regression to the mean. Betting really is all about volume and grinding out a profit over time with proper handicapping and bankroll management. In that regard I'm more than pleased with the results halfway through the season. Also my stakes have gone up by about 20% since the start of the season which has put more weight on the 'bad streak' compared to the 'bot streak'. Even after 580+ bets, the graph is still extremely fragile and it is not much is needed to make it go way up or way down.

Let me know in the comments how your betting weekend was !