I'm making these weekly posts as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will usually contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.
This was the worst week of the season so far dropping -3.747 units. Pretty much everything went wrong in the cup during the mid-week while the big pre-game bet I was on in the league also ended up losing somehow. I guess the downtrend is not over yet and these times really suck in betting. There is no real way around them though and I will just keep grinding it out cautiously for now as these things always turn around at some point.
I don't shy away from posting losing results though as I always try to keep it real painting and accurate picture of what the aim to be long term profitable really looks like instead of just showing big wins all the time pretending it's all easy.
During the bad times, it's always good to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. One of the advantages of keeping close track of all the numbers while having a graph is that it makes it very easy to see things in perspective. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, I'm still running above the expected +3.5% ROI despite a break-even streak of nearly 2000 bets. I've said this many times before, but volume is the one thing almost none of the people who are betting sports understand.
The bets taken on Copytip also haven't escaped the downswing. The same thing goes here, take a step back and look at the bigger picture and results still, are very much solid at +11.08% ROI after 75 bets. This is pretty much the only number I really care about.
I did for the first time make a mistake on the platform. It's not always easy to get a bet accepted with lines that move which happened to the Live bet on Standard +0 @ 1.989. It always takes some time before it's clear if it got accepted or not and you need to manually remove it before taking it again. This goes hand in hand with some rushing as you don't want to see the odds potentially collapse during this period. as a result, I mistakenly took the opposite bet. (over the years I've made multiple mistakes like this myself because things need to go quickly). I decided to just hedge the bet taking the opposite right after and leave it with that knowing I would not make the same mistake again. That bet ended up pushing.
Only 1 live bet Shares on the SBC Discord Server from me this week which honestly wasn't a very good one and could have gone wrong. I will remain cautious on the live bets until the bad streak turns around and only take those I really see a good reason for there to be an edge.
Discord Live-Bets Week 18
Standard +0 @ 1.980 (56' 1-1) FT 2-2 PUSH
I dipped below the expected profit line on the season. There is still a long way to go though as we aren't even halfway into the season. I do hope the trend will reverse and will do what I can to make it happen...
As always, let me know in the comments how your own betting week was or leave a link to your own results tracking post and I'll make sure to give it an upvote!