I'm making these posts weekly as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will always contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.
Betting has been something of a struggle lately and this was my biggest losing week so far this season setting me back below what I realistically expect to win. These periods can be quite tough, but they are inevitable for anyone who is in it for the longer run. The internet can be a very misleading place when it comes down to betting because nearly everyone only shares their wins and successes without ever mentioning losses. These Inevitable bad streaks are also the reason why very few actually keep a close record on the bets they take publically and why the ones that do rarely hold out for a long time without quitting or starting over.
I always enjoyed reading the daily25 blog from Steve who has very openly blogged about his results in good and bad runs for a long time. He has been the main inspiration for my own blogging style and I won't shy away from posting losing results when they happen.
As far as betting itself goes, it's one of those periods where everything I touch seems to lose and all the bets I decide to stay away from end up winning. A couple months back in September it was the other way around having a big upswing. I see 3 main reasons for the poor results lately.
- Natural Ups & Downs (Variance)
- The market being set Tighter
- Being less sharp overall
Nothing can be done about the 1st 2 and they will always be a part of this game. The 3rd is something I have control over and that will be my main focus moving forward this season. With the winter break starting in a couple days, It should be a good opportunity to refresh my mindset and get myself sharper again for the 2nd half of the season in 2019. I do plan to write a couple posts on this the next couple of weeks.
I did continue to share some of the live bets I took on the SBC Discord #live-betting Channel. I posted one of the bets [Stvv vs Kortrijk 1st Half Under 1 @ 2.03 (8' 0-0)]in the wrong channel (private crew chat) which of course ended up winning and that won't be taken up in the results. I will slow things down in week 21 and make another overall results overview on posted live bets during the winter break.
Discord Live-Bets Belgian Cup
Stvv vs AA Gent 1st Half Under 1 @1.99 (9' 0-0) PUSH
Kv Mechelen 1st Half +0 @ 1.87 (31' 1-0) WON
Union vs Racing Genk Over 3 @ 2.29 (65' 1-1) WON
Racing Genk -1 @ 2.711 (HT 1-0) PUSH
Union vs Racing Genk Corners Over 9 @ 1.892 (0-7 75") LOST
Extra Time Racing Genk -0.25 @ 1.80 HALF LOST
Discord Live-Bets Belgian League
Waasland vs Lokeren Over 3.5 @ 3.03 (83' 2-1) LOST
Standard vs Oostende CK Under 11 @ 1.847 (2-1 14') LOST
Zulte-Waregem +0 @ 2.25 (3-1 64') PUSH
Still positive on the season but I am below the expected pink line right now. I will decrease my stakes a bit the last week before the winter break and try to turn things around by putting in some extra focus and effort.
Let me know in the comments how your betting week was!
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