This was now my 7th losing week in the last 8 weeks dropping a total of roughly 6 units since peaking at ~13 units profit of the season. Betting never goes up in a straight line and there are always losing streaks which I try to display sharing my previews, bets, and results in these past 3+ years. The question right now is if this is just a random variance thing or if the bets themselves are just not good enough.

I have had multiple periods in the last decade where my betting simply was not good and sharp enough to beat the market. With proper money management combined with making the needed adjustments, I always managed to overcome these periods. This season, it has been very hard to properly handicap matches for me given the fact that there are so many strange factors going on. No fans in the stadiums, extremely bad pitches, crazy busy schedule, lots of missing players, lots of injuries, and so on. All these things have pretty much thrown many angles completely out of the window.

I have been a bit more cautious already but will push a bit more on the brake pedal in the coming weeks ditching my really aggressive betting style (I did take 955 bets already this season!) for a much more selective approach.

The regression to the main also continues in the pre-game bets I share in the Preview posts I'm making. I will also (try to) slow those down for now until I have reasons to believe my edge is bigger again.


Copytip

I'm also still taking a low profile when it comes down to taking bigger bets also taking them on Copytip while sharing on the SBC Discord Channel and on my Twitter (@costanzabets) as official bets.

Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021

11/12/2020 Racing Genk +0 @ 1.945 FT 1-0 LOST
01/11/2020 Antwerp +0 @ 2.500 FT 1-0 LOST
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON

It sucks to have broken down slightly on the expected profit pink line but at least things have slowed down and I haven't taken the elevator down yet which is always a danger when increasing stakes. I am not at ~0.2 units for a tiny bet, 0.4 units for a flat small bet (most of them), and 0.8 units for a solid medium bet while rarely having 1 Unit or higher positions. which I intend to keep until things stabilize. Once things go back to normal, I'll likely continue increasing my stakes more step by step as my overall bankroll very much allows it. In fact, I could handle 4 units full flat stakes right now if I wanted to, still being very much within an acceptable risk range. I rather play it safe though

The schedule remains furious right now with 2 full weeks on the program the coming 7 days followed by cup matches and very little rest which certainly will have in impact on the outcome of the matches. I intend to continue making previews while covering matches in-game on the SBC Discord