Another Solid week and I'm slowly building my way back to what I realistically expect to win long term this season. My stakes have been on the low conservative side with only 0.355 units on average for each bet. This is because of multiple factors. I'm still very much in a mode where preserving my capital during a downswing has priority over taking risks. This usually translates in taking more smaller bets which is not always a good sign. This week I had a lot of different positions on the same match where I got in over time. 6 bets came in on the corners market in AA Gent vs Moeskroen split between the over 10 pre-game line to O10.5 | O11 | O 11.5 | O12 which were all added live at a point where it was very unlikely to see the initial over 10 bet lose.
I talk a lot on how stats keeping can really help to do better and how almost nobody is willing to do this properly. Many do an attempt but it nearly always ends in the same scenario. The start is often with a lot of enthusiasm, but the bigger the sample gets the more true the numbers become. Ego often gets into the way and being down or facing a downswing can be extremely uncomfortable to the point where staking bigger to chase losses takes over. This usually ends in more losses and an excuse of having made a mistake to stop or start over from scratch.
One of the major mistakes I believe most people make is that they simply assume that they have an edge and are betting profitably without any evidence of this whatsoever. A far more healthy approach is to assume that you are a losing player looking for ways to become profitable. Your stake sizes and the longer term record you build up for yourself are good indicators to profitability. Even if those are good, it is still very healthy to keep questioning yourself since the market is constantly evolving.
Not that many live bets this week since I had very few bigger bets and those are the ones that tend to make it over in the SBC Discord Server. I will also be using it more to share early or late pre-game bets based on line-ups or odds that were not out yet at the time of making my previews. "Charleroi vs Oostende Under 9.5 CK @ 1.862" was one of those and it lost. There are 5 more weeks before the end of the season and I will make another discord shared live bets record update the week after.
Right now it is really starting to feel like a reversal and I'm only a couple units away from breaking the pink expected profit line again. The average amount of units staked is still quite a bit lower compared to the mid-season (see below) and I will attempt to slowly increase my stakes again next week
Let me know in the comments how your betting week was!