This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.
In week 8, things really started clicking which resulted in plenty of betting action and some solid profit that was made. My handicapping process is currently more streamlined than ever and has a good mix of being on top of the league watching every match, personal stats keeping using those effectively, intuition, and solid fundamentals when it comes down to understanding the betting market. I guess my weakest point by far is actually understanding the game of football which honestly is extremely overrated when it comes down to betting and beating these markets.
It was one of those matches were many of the matches had interesting angles mostly from a pre-game point of view and I managed to hit a 4.42 outright winner bet on Cercle Brugge on which I had 0.32 units staked. It was one of those matches I had a rare hunch on and also acted upon it as the emotional motivation factor for the Cercle team was quite big.
The bold pre-game bets I am sharing in my preview posts also continue to do well despite the fact that many of them are smaller positions or trading positions. So far there have been 77 of them good for 11.252 units profit when taken with flat bets which comes at +14.61% ROI. I do honestly expect this to drop down quite a bit as the expectation of these bets is nowhere near where it is now. I do believe they do have quite a lot of informational value and more importantly, they help myself to do better an be consistent in my handicapping.
The worst bet of the week ended up as my only official bet I took extra in on Copytip and there were no official live bets in the SBC Discord Channel. The bet did end up winning half so no real complaints there. I haven't really been pushing my activity on Copytip and actually have been losing followers. I'm honestly not all too busy with all that and just have my focus on having a solid personal betting record there which currently is the case at +11.42% ROI. Limits are often a reason why it is hard to translate my own bets into shared bets as I tend to drop the odds with my bets. The Oostende 1H -1 Corners bet which was by far my strongest of the weekend for example was impossible to take as the limits were only 240€ and I needed multiple clicks to get in what I wanted myself leaving the odds way lower. I will never take heavily dropped odds compared to what I got myself on Copytip or as an official bet.
Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON
I know the season is still long and not much is needed to get results in the red again, but it does feel nice to see my discipline paying off with the results following. Being in the green above the pink expected profit line now allows me to slowly start being a bit more adventurous in my stakes. Of course, all within certain limits. I had a look at last season where at this time I was up 10.679 units on 372 bets with a bit more units staked in total. That season eventually ended with an overall +2.48% ROI so that certainly is a lesson I am taking with me.
I will try to use the international break to refuel my batteries and be back in 10 days to continue my betting season...