A week of international football awaits us and here I will be providing you with my thoughts on these games, as well as some necessary statistics that can help out.
Belgium vs. Iceland (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Brussels
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Belgium (1st / 3rd) - Iceland (36th / 46th)
Belgium are the current leaders of the FIFA Rankings. The ELO Rankings still have Brazil and France above them. There is no doubt that the last World Cup and the performances of the last couple of years has given the Belgian team a massive boost. However the same goes for Iceland, what has been one of the smaller nations of Europe for a couple of decades, but suddenly there was the rise up the rankings.
Since Iceland was eliminated from the World Cup (their first ever) in France their performances dropped a little. Sometimes it seemed they did not even show up at all (6-0 loss against Switzerland). However a month later they impressed with a 2-2 draw away against France in a friendly match. Iceland surely has potential causing an upset, as they showed against Argentina during the World Cup, as they showed against The Netherlands a couple of years ago. That was pretty much the moment where the world suddenly had to take Iceland serious.
Strangely enough despite all mentioned above, Iceland has not won a single match since 14 January 2018 and only recorded two wins in this whole year. Eleven matches so far went without a win, eight of those were lost and there were three draws. Belgium only lost one match (Yes, that is the 1-0 defeat against France in the World Cup semi final) in their last 30 (!!!) matches. On the 1st of September 2016 Belgium lost 2-0 at home against Spain a few months after they were eliminated at Euro 2016 by Wales.
Belgium is also the leader in Nations League Group 2 with six points and two matches to go. Switzerland also has six points but has played one match more. A win against Iceland will put them three points ahead and depending on the goal difference even a defeat against Switzerland later this week might be enough to qualify for the final four. Belgium will understand the importance of winning this match and will trash Iceland.
My prediction: Belgium vs. Iceland 4-0
Croatia vs. Spain (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Zagreb
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Croatia (4th / 11th) - Spain (9th / 4th)
This summer Croatia reached the final of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia in which they eventually lost against France. For years everyone knew what they were capable of, but to actually get as far as they came this time, was a massive overachievement. It has put Croatia on the map, but at the same time pressure gets to the players who then need to prove that they can keep up with that level of play. How different was that for Spain who were one of the World Cup favorites before the tournament started, then lost their coach one day before the start, still managed to escape the group, but then faced the powerboosted host nation that eliminated them after a thrilling penalty shootout.
The Nations League has been the perfect tournament for Spain to show what they are capable of. Winning 1-2 away against England, which also reached the semi finals of that World Cup and then at home, the demolishing of the World Cup runner-up Croatia, 6-0. Spain showed they are back, that they can still do it, but then came the unexpected home defeat against England last month. Currently Spain are still leading the group with six points out of three matches, whereas England has four points and Croatia just one, but after only two matches. This time it is Croatia that has to prove the world that they can still do it. If they do, then they will open up this group massively, because if they then win against England on Sunday, they will qualify for the final four. But if England wins that game, that cherry on the cake will be theirs. In case Spain loses against Croatia, but then England and Croatia draw, Spain will still qualify for the final four.
The question is if Croatia can actually pull if this comeback in the group, or that Spain will walk away with the win and then creates a gap that even England cannot close anymore? Both teams will feel the pressure and if Croatia pulls it off, England will feel the pressure too on Sunday. This time Croatia will play in front of their home crowd again (against England when they drew 0-0 the stadium was empty). I feel Croatia is going to open up this group and will provide us the drama as described above and Sunday we will have a cracker of a game at Wembley.
My prediction: Croatia vs. Spain 3-2
Austria vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Vienna
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Austria (24th / 31st) - Bosnia & Herzegovina (32nd / 23rd)
Austria will have to win this match in the stadium named after the legendary Ernst Happel if they want to give themselves a chance to promote to the highest league the next time the Nations League is being held. If they win they will get to six points, still three behind Bosnia & Herzegovina, who will have played all four games already by then. A 2-0 Austrian win will give them all to play for, as Bosnia's goal difference will go two down and Austria's will go two up. It will then be enough for Austria to beat Northern Ireland on Sunday to secure promotion. If Bosnia can pull off a draw or a win, they will be the ones that will promote to the Nations League walhalla. I expect Austria to go into full attacking mode and if they score early, they will probably manage to win it. If they fail to score early, a Bosnian counter can put them into real trouble, meaning the last match of the group will be actually a chance for Northern Ireland to avoid relegation, rather than an Austrian promotion opportunity. I'm afraid the Austrian will be disappoined after this game. So far they only scored one goal in this Nation League and Bosnia already has five and Edin Dzeko is their main striker. That counter is going to come, probably even two when Austria opens everything up in a desperate try to get things done.
My prediction: Austraia vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-2
Hungary vs. Estonia (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Budapest
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Hungary (55th / 63rd) - Estonia (98th / 94th)
This match is the perfect game for Hungary to make sure that they won't relegate to the lowest groups of this Nations League. It would be a huge failure for a team that even qualified for the knock-out stages two years ago during Euro 2016 before being eliminated by the almighty Belgians. Estonia is supposed to be the weaker team, but last month they managed to score three goals against goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi. Hungary did the same thing and thus the game ended in 3-3 giving Estonia a real small chance to survive. Promotion for Hungary is no longer possible, but they should not have any problem avoiding relegation.
My prediction: Hungary vs. Estonia 4-1
Greece vs. Finland (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Athens
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Greece (42nd / 52nd) - Finland (56th / 47th)
The other two teams in the group of Hungary and Estonia are battling for promotion. Who would have thought that Finland would be in that position and who would have thought that Finland would be top of the league with four wins out of four matches? Not many people will have predicted that, but they have proven everyone wrong and that is exactly where they are at. Greece follows six points behind Finland and can still promote, but only if they win this match and the next one against Estonia. Still then Finland will also need to lose against Hungary, otherwise they will still promote. Finland does have the better odds at the moment to promote, but away to hectic Greece, it will be hard to maintain that unbeaten run, and if they lose, then they might lose the next match too. Greece will know that too and they will give it all, and they will succeed.
My prediction: Greece vs. Finland 2-0
Kazakhstan vs. Latvia (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Astana
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Kazakhstan (117th / 121st) - Latvia (132nd / 134th)
This match can be considered a friendly at this stage of the competition. There is no relegation option from this level and the promotion spot in this group has already been awarded to Georgia. This match is just being played for honour and to practice for their next campaign, the Euro 2020 qualification.
Last month both teams met in Riga and played 1-1. Kazakhstani players are getting more and more used to travel these distances to Europe all the time. It is an upcoming nations, specially in club football where teams from Kazakhstan slowly but surely manage to improve their results at the big stage. This is not yet visible in the national team's performances, but it should be enough to set Latvia aside after they travelled almost the distance of half the world.
My prediction: Kazakhstan vs. Latvia 3-0
Andorra vs. Georgia (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Andorra la Vella
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Andorra (133rd / 186th) - Georgia (92nd / 66th)
Georgia is that one country that is too good for this part of the Nations League.So far they scored nine and conceded no goals yet. They are comfortably in the lead and can no longer be overtaken. Next time they will play in the C-League rather than in the D-League. The good thing for Georgia is that also out of the D-League one country will qualify for Euro 2020. With them dominating this group so much we have to seriously consider Georgia to be a country that could potentially make their debut at the big stage in 2020. Knowing that in the other groups no country has been as dominating I think they will be the big favorites for that ticket whenever it's time to play for that. Before that, Georgia will set Andorra aside, easily.
My prediction: Andorra vs. Georgia 0-4
San Marino vs. Moldova (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Serravalle
FIFA / ELO Ranking : San Marino (209th / 204th) - Moldova (171th / 126th)
Similar to the Kazakhstan vs. Latvia game is this one between San Marino and Moldova. The difference here is that Moldova potentially still has a small chance to gain promotion. They don't have it in their own hands and will need to hope for a draw between Luxembourg and Belarus. They will then still need to beat Luxembourg themselves and (there's the challange) hope that Belarus won't win against San Marino. Let's be fair, the chances for a Moldovan promotion are limited. Last month when playing at home they beat San Marino 2-0 and I believe they could do the same thing in Serravalle.
My prediction: San Marino vs. Moldova 0-2
Luxembourg vs. Belarus (UEFA Nations League) Venue: Luxembourg City
FIFA / ELO Ranking : Luxembourg (84th / 117th) - Belarus (78th / 76th)
The top match in this group takes place at Stade Josy Barthel in Luxembourg City. Luxembourg leads Belarus by one point after four matches with two to play for, one of them this one, facing each other. Luxembourg seem to have stepped up their game a little bit. In the last World Cup qualification both teams were in the same group as well. Luxembourg then won four points from the matches in which they faced each other. They eventually ended up one point ahead of Belarus thanks to a 0-0 draw against France and a 1-1 draw against Bulgaria. In the Nations League it was however Belarus that won in Minsk (1-0). The Luxembourg squad exists of a couple of players who made history this season by qualifying for the Europa League group stage with F91 Dudelange. For me that is one reason to back Luxembourg in this matchup.
My prediction: Luxembourg vs. Belarus 1-0
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