We all know that playing one of the above betting types are more like playing on a lottery than smart betting. But still they always allure and attract us!
Why? Because it is a great way to increase the odds. It could give us the idea to becoming rich with a 5€ or $5 bet!
And that’s why the bookmakers do like you to play this betting types. They always have special action around these. From an odds booster to a refund when only one of the games on the ticket failed to land!
And believe me they don’t mind if they have to pay-out once in a while a 6 figures parlay slip! It is the best advertisement they could get! Due to the odds they will always win on these!
Still even for a wintered sport bettor it is good to play these once in a while. If you are playing with a regular straight odds bookie than the system won’t mark you as fast as a smart bettor, who does decrease the bookie advantage!
I have played more than 1000 of parlay’s, combo’s, acca’s or fullcovers, hence my name. So maybe it is time to write down some advice when playing these!
My biggest win, was a 12 fold win parlay good for odds of 101! To bad I only played it for one euro!
Odds, it is all about the odds!
Playing a parlay with bets with too low odds is a risky business. Suppose you would create a threefold parlay with all odds of 1.2.
The odd of 1.2 represents a probability of 83%. But if you combine 3 of these the probability drops to 57%. And still the combined odds are not above 2. In this case the odds are 1.728. Meaning that out of each 3 parlays you play you need to win 2 to make a profit.
And how often one of the easy games has a surprise!
If you would play odds of 1.5, the combined odds would increase to 3.375! Which assures you a profit when 1 out of 3 is correct!
But the opposite is only true, only bets with too high odds, could make it a dreamer! According to me, the odds between 1.5 and 2.2 are ideal to have in a Parlays. For odds higher than this, see further below!
The number of bets on the parlay!
Sure the more bets involved in the parlay, the bigger the odds get! But this of course also decreases the probability of winning the parlay.
Suppose a tenfold parlay with all bets with odds around 1.2. Like we have learned above 1.2 reflects a probability of 83%.
The combined odds of this tenfold would be 6.20. If we convert this to a probability (1/6.20) we do get 16,15%. It is worth it?
If you do want to play a higher number of games on your parlay! I can advise to have an average odds of 1.5! This would result in a combined odds of 57.66, 1.73% probability!
While there is no ideal number of games, history thought me that for me the threefold parlays are the way to go!
The betting types
If we think about Parlays, most of us immediately think about home-draw-win bets. But an over 2.5 of both teams to score in football could be more rewarding.
The odds of both betting types and most of the time way above 1.5. For both teams to score, we do get an average of 1.7. Putting the combined odds around 5 for a 3 fold. Which is worth the bet, if you did enough research!
Also the BTTS and Over 2.5 don’t care who win. For the over bet a 4-0 score is a good as a 2-1 or 1-2!
This which do come in handy here are overall stats of the competition. For instance the Bundesliga is known for the high percentage of games in which both teams do find the net, the Dutch second division is a goal galore fest, lots of games here where easily 3 or more goals are score. In the Premier League the home advantage is bigger than in any other competition. And so on! All football leagues do have their own characteristics!
Too many Parlays!
When you are doing your research and selecting games, it is an easy pitfall to keep on creating parlays! It is juicy to see all these high odds!
Thinking that winning one parlay could cover the costs of the lost ones. This idea only will result in selection games with even more higher odds on the betting slip, decreasing the possibility that you will win one!
If 2 or more do land, it could be a good day, but if all fail, you need a stellar betting day to recover the losses!
Create all the parlays you want but downsize it when placing the actual bets. Compare them with each other, set yourself a max total ante and start throwing away some of these!
Not looking back!
We have discussed it as SBC, as many as times as possible! Record keeping is vital for sports bettors! And this for sure counts for the parlays betting. Here there are multiple viewpoints which you can use:
- always a game for a competition which does fail!
- A certain parlay type which isn’t working for you. Swallow your pride and enjoyable or nor, ditch the Parlays type from your next bets! I do play the following 3fold win, 3fold BTTS, 3fold Over 2.5, lucky 15, 6 fold win, …
For each of my parlays I can see if the type is working for me or not!
Currently I am working out a new betting record spread sheet, to make the overview even more transparent, it will give me an idea which weekdays are leaks, betting types, competitions and so on!
When it is finished I will write a more detailed post about it later. For the once who do want a sneak preview, you can see it here!
The same game!
When creating multiple parlays, one has to be careful than a bet on a game isn’t involved in more than one Parlay! If this one fail to land, it will destroy multiple parlays at once!
Also bets who do have some correlation, like playing in a combo that a game will go for the over, and in another combo the same game as BTTS. Don’t do this.
When playing multiple parlays it is important to play one game (regardless of the bet on it) only in one Parlays!
The draws and correct scores!
While we often don’t like draws, they could be great for a betting perspective. The odds of a draw are in most cases above 3! But inserting a draw into a Parlay could be risky.
That’s where fullcoverbetting come into the game. In a fullcover bet, you do bet on all possible combinations of the bets on the betting slip. Singles, doubles, trebles and so on!
I did some experiment with Trixie (excluding the single bets) and Patent (including the single bets) with only draws on the betting slip. When you do hit 2 of those it could be juicy! And remember in most competition the number of draws are between 20 and 25% of all games played! So a Trixie equals 4 bets and a patent bet equals 7 bets!
The same could be done for the correct score bets. I do play these in a lucky 15. Hence 15 bets, based on 4 correct score predictions!
Risking too much money on them!
It is hard to constantly create winning combos! That's why it is smart not to put too much money on them! I normally bet in the beginning of the season max 1 units on each individual parlay! Regardless of the odds! If I do see that I am hitting a certain type of parlays frequently enough! I will increase the stakes with 25 or 50%, but also drop back to the original stakes, if a loosing run for that type is going on!
Don't use parlays to recover lots of losses, because in that case karma will strike you and it will probably fail!Do play these only a fun bets! And don’t count yourself rich!
So, that is enough for now!
If there are any questions feel free to ask!
The SBC witnesses!
If I now still have your attention. We as the SBC (Sports Betting Community) are running 2 witness nodes on the Scorum blockchain! If you still have some witness votes left, you could consider giving them to @btb and @stimp1024!
Voting can be done via this website!
As SBC we try to support as many as authors as possible, just like we are funding a monthly 100 SCR freeroll poker tournament and we do sponsor multiple contest and actions on the scorum blockchain!
The website of guiltyparties is safe to use. Just enter your username and key, and select a witness. Wait a few seconds and you can do the same for another witness!
The key is not stored by guilty parties but is only used to communicate with the blockchain!
Cheers,
Peter
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