Well round 23 kicks off today. 8 games will be played. The most interesting is probably Arsenal vs Chelsea, but also the Newcastle vs Cardiff game is more important than we think.

Predictions

Let's see what the model has to say about it, and how I can use this to place some bets!

Wolves vs Leicester

I would like to see the Wolves winning this game, but the model thinks different about it. I do see the form of the Wolves improving and personally I am glad that Dedoncker finally is getting some minutes on the pitch!

Based on the statistics the under 2.5 would be the logical bet. Only 27% of the home games did result into an over and Leicester did have only 36% of their away games resulting in an over. This means of course that the odds for the over will be much higher than the under. Remember that the average of the Premier League this season for the over is still above 55%.

So, I will put a moderate amount of SCR on the over!

Bournemouth vs West Ham

Number 12 at home against number 11! A close game.

If we look at the form of both teams, West Ham does have a small advantage with collecting 7 points out of the last 5 games, while Bournemouth only did score 4 points.

The model also disagrees with it self. It will be a close game, with probably an over 2.5. But my money will be put on West Ham! Also a moderate bet here.

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace won their last 2 away games, one of those was the surprise victory at Man City! But Liverpool did win 9 out of 10 homes games and only got 3 goals against. So I doubt it that Crystal Palace will win their third away game in a row!

Also here I do expect an over but I wont place a bet on that. The odds of 1.5 just aren't good enough to play!
I do think that there is some value in the X2. Meaning that Liverpool wont win. The odds offered on Betscorum are 5.545. Good enough for a small bet on that.

Sometimes you have to bet against the market! :)

Man United vs Brighton

Never thought that Man United would be able to close the gap with the top 5. And for sure not in such a short period. It would have been a different competition if Mourinho wouldn't have started the season as head coach!

The model has no doubt about it, United will win. Based on the form and the fact that Brighton only won 2 of their away games this season, it could be right.

I do see some value in the under 2.5. The odds for this are 2.251 at this moment, which represent a probability of 44%. So a small bet on the under!

Newcastle vs Cardiff

I do consider this an interesting game. Not only the game on itself but also the result could have an impact on the relegation battle going on!

The two teams are only separated by 1 point. So a win for Cardiff will give them some air, while Newcastle have to win this game to get out of a relegation spot!

I do favor Newcastle. The odds of 2,111 are good enough for me.

Southampton vs Everton

Here both models disagree with each other. The one favors Southampton, while the model based on the current season results favors Everton!

Southampton only won once this season at home. Which is quite a depressing figure. 5 games did result into a draw, while 4 were lost.
Everton away track, isn't much better with 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 lost.

The over has a great possibility. 70% of the Southampton home games did result in an over, while 60% of the Everton away games. So a moderate bet on the over!

Watford vs Burnley

Number 7 against number 15. With Burnley not having a great track record. So Watford is the clear favorite for this game!

But Burnley is in great form with 9 points out of 5 games. This makes it a difficult game to call. The odds for a home win for Watford are just way too low compared with the form results. The odds for a win for Burnley are in my opinion also too high. So, I will try to profit from that. A moderate bet on a won for Burnley!

Arsenal vs Chelsea

The most interesting game of today.
If we take a look at the H2H stats from the Premier League, we can see that Chelsea won 5 of the latest 9 games.

Combine this with the form dip of Arsenal, and we will have a clear favorite! Also these kind of games are the one which gives Hazard extra motivation!

I was lucky to get the odds of 2.457 for a Chelsea win. Which is just good enough to bet on. This will be my biggest bet of the day!

102 SCR for a Chelsea win!

The bets

In total 9 bets are placed. Good for a total ante of 389 SCR.

My Premier League results so far on Betscorum (since Jan 2019):

Good luck,

Peter