With so many leagues/matches currently being available on betscorum.com, it is becoming really hard to catch up with all the action, history of clubs/teams and their performances in order to predict the possible outcome especially, for the relatively less popular leagues like Turkish Super Liga, Bundesliga, and Portuguese Primeira Liga. Therefore, I was initially only placing my stakes on the familiar clashes and tournaments, however, I realized that I was just limiting myself as any match (in betting terms) is not about the personal choice but more about probabilities, statistics, and calculations. Hence, I started to compile the data and grow a systematic approach towards placing stakes on other matches as well and surprisingly it turned out to be a pleasant habit. Even though I have not gained a substantial profit yet but I am not in negative too which means that the overall homework is going well and it is time to be patient and let the drops join together to make an ocean.
I am planning to share my betting picks for the respective leagues occasionally in order to provide motivation for the fellows like myself who are hesitating to place stakes on other-than-known games/leagues and I hope that it would consequently increase the betting activity on the platform.
- Turkish Super Liga
- Akhisar Belediye VS Besiktas
The hosts are currently at the bottom of the table, just above the relegation zone and the visitors have managed to rise up to the 7th position. Akhisar in their recent game scored an average of 1 goal/game and have conceded less than 1. Besiktas has a slightly higher scoring average (1.75), and they have not only won more league matches but they have not lost a single match to Akhisar. Therefore, my pick for this match would be:
- Besiktas @2.11 (betscorum.com) with a possible score of 1-2
- Bet value: High
2. Yeni Malatyaspor VS Goztepe
The team at no. 3 in ranking is hosting the one at 10. In last 4-5 matches, the hosts have demonstrated a dominant performance with a win of above 60% however, Goztepe’s is 22%. Maltayaspor is having a streak of winning so it makes the choice obvious however, both teams have scoring potential so the match can be above 2.5 goals. My betting pick:
- Home @2.37 (increase stake at higher odds)
- Bet value: Medium
3. BB Erzurumspor VS Konyaspor
Its rank 8 vs 16 where the hosts have above 30% wins while guests stand with 50%, however, both teams have a high draw rate of 33%. Therefore, in my point of view it would be a close away win or draw with a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals. Away/draw wasn’t available so I took the bets separately:
- Away @2.81, Draw @3.10
- Bet value: High for Away win
4. Antalya VS Kayserispor
The hosts are a better team here with 3 more wins and less draw/lose in comparison to the opponent. But, in the recent games the visitors have shown improvement in their form, so a close win for the home team can be predicted with a low scoring game (Under 2.5).
- Home win/Draw
- Current bet value: Medium
- Portuguese Primeira Liga
- CD Nacional VS SC Braga
The visitors are the hot favorite here with 11 wins in comparison to 5 of Nacional side. Braga is standing at 3rd position in the league with above 65% wins however, their away form is similar to the Nacional’s home but with a high draw percentage of above 45%. As the odds for Braga win are of less value (1.66) so a small stake on draw (3.38) may become valuable.
- Small stake (draw)
- Bet value: Low
2. Chaves VS Porto
The match here is between the topper and the underdog from the second last place where Porto is clearly leading the table and have no intention to give away the spot in the near future. They have an exceptional goal rate of above 2, where hosts haven’t scored very well so there a possibility of under 2.5 goals.
- Away win, Under 2.5 goals (@2.0)
- Score prediction 0-2
- Bet value: Medium
3. Guimaraes VS Benfica
The clash of the Titans is going to be an interesting match with both top-level teams where Guimaraes have won their last home matches with low scores and without letting the opponent touch their net whereas Benefica has demonstrated one of the best forms in away matches with 70% wins. So, the high possibility of a draw, low odds on Benefica, and unclear situation for over/under, I would go for a small stake on draw.
- Draw/Away would be a great option for this one
- Higher possibility of under 2.5 goals
- Bet value: Medium
- Germany Bundesliga
- Hoffenheim VS Bayern M
Bayern Munchen is coming in action right away with the beginning of the second half of the tournament and is currently standing at 2nd place with 8 point behind the topper Dortmund. The hosts are from the 7th position in the table and were in a good attacking form which makes both team make a roundabout average goal score of 2. There is currently a low value on Bayern win and also on Over 2.5 goals so a little risky shot for over 3.5 goals can pay off well.
- Away win odds @1.52
- Over 3.5 @2.0
- Bet value: Very low
2. Frankfurt VS Freiburg
The hosts had a mixed season of wins/losses which has landed them at about 6th position while the visitors are holding 11th. Frankfurt has dominated their previous clashes with the guests who could not almost score a single goal. The odds of 1.66 are not a high value to take but worth some stake because of high win chance for the hosts.
- Home win @1.66
- Bet Value: Medium
3. Stuttgart VS Mainz
The clash history of the two teams from nearly the bottom of the table predicts that both teams have almost equal wins and most of them were close to draw. The comparison of the combined probabilities of the two teams i.e. host with home wins/draws and guests with away wins/draws conclude the chances for visitors to win/draw this one. Therefore:
- Draw @3.35 is my option
- Bet value: Medium
4. Hannover VS Werder Bremen
Even though both teams have not been playing their last matches with exceptional form but Hannover demonstrated exceptionally poor performance because of which they are sitting at the bottom of the table. On the other hand, Werder started well but the last matches in the first half were not very impressive, however, they are playing better than the host and also have a high win percentage in away matches. Therefore, my choice would be the visitors.
- Away win @2.2
- Bet value: Medium-high
5. Leverkusen VS Borussia MG
Both teams are in an amazing form and had some high scoring clashes in the past where Leverkusen have somehow managed to win the majority of them. They have seldom faced a draw because of which probably the odds for draw are high. The stats here say that the home team would have a win but I would take my chances on the draw as well as Borussia finished the first half in a great form. A preferable bet would be over 2.5 goals if better odds are found.
- Draw @3.96 vs @3.8 (betfair)
- Bet value: High but Risky
6. Ausgburg VS Fortuna Dusseldorf
Both teams are from the bottom of the table and it was hard to find their previous clash record as it happened a long time ago so analyzing their current form is the best way, however, their stats are almost similar with away side showing slightly better performance. This is not enough to say that the visitors would take away full points so I would go for a draw as it is a high value bet as well.
- Draw @3.84 on betscorum.com vs 3.7 elsewhere
Quick summary of my betting strategy:
These are my initial stakes as usually before the commencement of the matches higher odds are offered so recently I have started to keep a stake margin to grab those chances. I started with a bankroll of 550 SCR and currently, I have increased it to about 1000 which according to 1%-2% stake portion provides me about 10-20 SCR for each bet. It is not a very large stake per bet and I am always tempted to place larger one so I am planning to increase my bankroll instead to about 3000 SCR in the coming month or so.
There are more matches coming this weekend so I shall try to share my 20th January predictions as well. For English Premier League, I am sure you can find many better and solid predictions by @phil, @writingamigo and SBC team as in that case I am still emotionally driven. Also, don't forget to take part in the 5000 SCR giveaway, this might be the last weekend to enroll yourself in that mega distribution.
Comments