I hope you all had a great yesterday as it was one of the best for me since I started my journey on betscorum. After a day with a negative ROI, my prediction model was tipping me to bet on some certain team wins for the fixtures which I would have considered as draws but, I preferred to stick with the predictions which proved to be fruitful. That is why it is advisable to be disciplined and follow a pattern/model once it starts to deliver above average results. It also appears that the same model may not work for every league because I am witnessing some fluctuations in results e.g. some leagues have a higher home win-rate than the others but I was adding a constant pre-calculated value to all of the fixtures so I shall find out a way to fix it which I hope would improve my results even further. For today's post, I am going to share the predictions and my picks for the fixtures from France Ligue 1, Spanish La Liga and Mexican Liga MX and I hope they may provide you motivation/inspiration and assist you with your picks.
- France Ligue 1
- Amiens SC vs. Olympique Lyon
The teams are facing each other once again within a week’s period where Lyon knocked down the hosts with a score of 0-2 in Coupe De France. The visitors are sitting comfortably at the top of the table (3rd place) while the hosts are just above the relegation zone. It might not be a completely dominating win for Lyon as the hosts are improving their defense strategies because of which they are confining the stronger opponents to about two goals on average and they even scored a goal against Lille. However, the visitors have won all of their head-to-head matches and their away form is much better than the hosts therefore, we can expect:
- Away win @1.58
- Expected Score: 1-2
- Bet Value: Medium-High
2. Toulouse FC vs. Angers SCO
Both teams in this fixture are slightly unpredictable as in their recent games the home team managed to beat much higher ranked team OGC Nice and pull out a draw with Lyon but lost to an underdog Amiens while the visitors could score 3 goals against St. Etienne and a draw with Nice and Amiens. The home team, however, has a slightly better form and in their head-to-head matches, they managed to attain above 60% wins and the remaining were a draw, while the visitors could hardly secure a victory. Therefore, a home/draw double chance is the favorable option the odds of which are of low value (1.3) so my tough call would be a draw.
- Draw @3.26 on betscorum (Safer option, Home/Draw)
- Under 2.5 goals (1.6) also seems to be a good option.
3. PSG vs. Stade Rennes
I may not need to explain much about the potential of the home team here as they are not only at the top of the league but even the team following (Lille) is 13 points down. The juicy odds on Rennes win (14.0) made me focus for a moment on the possibility of their defeat and interestingly, they recently lost a match to a complete underdog Guingamp and they also lost last head-to-head with Rennes (2018). Did I get your attention right? But, make no mistake, in both matches, PSG was not participating with their full squad and later on, they unleashed their wrath on Guingamp and knocked them off with a staggering 9-0 win. Therefore, something similar can happen in this fixture and if you really wish to place a bet on this match, then:
- Over 2.5 goals (@1.4) is the best option with a high possibility of:
- Over 3.5 goals (@1.9)
- Spain La Liga
- Girona FC vs. Barcelona
The visitor team may not need an introduction and stats to support their claim on the throne as they are comfortably sitting on the top of the table while the home team suffered from a streak of losses followed by draws. Even though the home team had a scoring/winning potential but this may not be their match to break through the evil spell and claim a victory but they might provide a small resistance in order to pocket half points, which also seems highly unlikely. The over 2.5 goals option is at only 55% chance, therefore, considering the option that Barca would win with at least 2 goals margin, I would place my first ever handicap bet.
- Barcelona -1.5 (@1.98)
- Bet value: High
2. Real Sociedad vs. Huesca
The hosts are currently at the 9th place while the visitors are at the bottom of the table. The fixture might have been a one-sided case but the hosts have also lost form and are entering the Draw zone, one of which was a relatively tough fixture while the other was not. However, the home form and the previous head-to-head fixtures are completely in favor of the hosts. Also, the visitors have a low scoring potential i.e. an average of less than 1 while the home team has just recently gone above 2.5 goals with a 50% possibility of the match to go above 2.5 goals.
- Home win @1.57
- Under 2.5 goals @1.89
- Bet value: Medium
3. Athletic Club vs. Real Betis
Even though the hosts are coming from about 7 ranks lower than the visitors but Athletic club has never been an easy opponent for the toppers. In their last head-to-head fixtures, the home team has completely dominated the visitors with about over 60% wins. In addition, they have regained their form after consecutive losses which makes the team an equal competitor of the guests. Athletic’s home form is slightly better than the Betis’ away form but their cumulative draw percentage is above 80%. My model has predicted me a home win with a small margin which was covered in the +- error range so Home/Draw is the best option here, however, due to a low value in the bet, I would take my chances with:
- Draw @3.31 (Home/draw is preferable)
- Bet Value: medium-High
4. Espanyol vs. Real Madrid
The home team has been inconsistent in their performance over the course of time but they have managed to secure some wins and a draw with Real Betis because of which they are currently at 13th rank while the visitors are at the 4th. Madrid’s also shocked the world with their recent losses to the underdog teams like Leganes and Real Sociedad. However, in head-to-head games, the visitors have a whopping above 80% lead and considering their average 2 goals/match as compared to the host’s 1.1 we can predict a clear victory for the away team.
- Away @1.7
- Just 55% possibility of over 2.5 goals so the odds are not very attractive (1.7)
- Bet Value: Medium
- Mexico Liga MX
- Toluca vs. Tigres UANL
The host team is from the first half of the standings (7th) and the visitors are from the second (11th) which means that the home teams has surely performed well in the past. However, things are changing fast in the league and the events are becoming hard to predict as Tigers have regained their form so their recent win percentage (above 50%) is higher than the home team’s (35%). To make the fixture more interesting let me share that the home form of Toluca is almost similar to the away form of the Tigers therefore, it is most probably a draw.
- Draw @3.1 (small stake)
- Bet value: Medium
2. Queretaro vs. Club Leon
The away team here is in a slightly better form than the home team, where their ranks also justify their performance with the home team being at the bottom while the away team is slightly (3 ranks above) them. The main comparison and difference comes from their head-to-head matches and goal scoring potentials. The away team is leading the score in both cases which makes the choice obvious.
- Away win @2.3
- Bet value: High but Risky
3. Santos Laguna vs. Guadalajara
The home team from 13th place is going to face the one from 2nd but it would be too early to judge the results from their current standings because of the initial stages of the league matches. Their head-to-head fixtures have been equally won by both teams and their home and away forms are also very similar. However, the main difference can be detected from their recent fixtures where the visitors had remarkable wins and to mention that their goal conceding average is almost zero. Therefore, the fixture is expected to be a low scoring game with an only goal by the visitor’s side.
- Away win @3.8
- Bet Value: Very high
My Recent Betting Summary:
As usual, I shall share a glimpse of my betting summary especially this time with a strong joy as discussed above. The bets shown in the snapshot are not all of them but the total given at the bottom include the betting day calculations. I am hoping for a great day tomorrow and wish you all the best as well.
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