Welcome to another betting Sunday on betscorum. Yesterday, I shared some predictions for Eredivisie and Ligue 1 where the majority of the Dutch matches ended in my favor (even though many bets were not matched by the commencement time) while it was a bit unfortunate to miss the winning chances for Ligue 1 with close margins. Despite that, the teams I was backing were way better in terms of goal attempts, shots on target, possessions, passes and, their opponents even got their players kicked out by receiving red cards but as I said it was quite unfortunate. Overall, my ROI remained neutral and I hope to get it moving today so let's have a look at the predictions and my picks for the fixtures from Spanish La Liga and Italy Serie A.
- Spain La Liga
- Girona FC vs. Valencia
The hosts were trying to get far away from the relegation zone and they have somewhat been successful in their aim as they defeated Real Madrid, Vallecano and managed a draw with Sociedad in their recent fixtures. Interestingly, both of those wins were on the road while Girona's home form is quite terrible where they have lost/draw all of their games and in fact couldn't even score in their last 2 home matches. The visitors, however, have an adequate away form as they lost only 17% of their games on the road. They also secured over 60% wins in their recent fixtures while the remaining 40% ended in a draw despite having tough fixtures. Even though hosts form is improving but I believe they might have to do something exceptional to beat the visitors as the away team have a better goal scoring/conceding potential.
- Away win @2.45
- Handicap 0.0 Valencia @2.0 is not available, otherwise a better grab.
- Normally, their head-to-head were low-scoring fixtures, but I believe this time it might be Over 2.5 goals i.e. 1-2 is the score prediction
- Over 2.0 @2 can be a valuable addition
- Bet Value: Medium
- Best odds for this fixture
2. Levante vs. Villarreal
Both teams in this fixture have almost equal forms despite that last season favorite Villareal is 3 ranks below the hosts and is facing relegation issues. The teams have a fluctuating form which makes it harder to predict the outcome of their games as they were able to secure 50% of wins/draws in their recent fixtures. The visitors were slightly more surprising as they have defeated Zenit and Sevilla with significant goal differences, while their away form is still questionable. Nonetheless, they have an almost equal goal scoring/conceding potential and when the two teams are a mirror image of each other the draw becomes an inevitable choice. We may find the visitors drawing the first blood that would be backed by the hosts and either both teams would score or we may witness a goalless draw by the final whistle.
- Draw @3.6
- Bet value: Medium
- Best odd for this fixture
3. Sevilla vs. Real Sociedad
This is one of the most challenging fixtures as both teams are aiming for the Europa league and despite that Sevilla is currently in a better position of claiming it, their indecent form is weighing them down. After consecutive losses in their recent fixtures, the hosts managed to have a draw but they should not be very proud of that as they let their opponent score twice which was hardly balanced. The visitors are not enjoying a fine form as well but they have been more consistent as they were not defeated in over 70% of their recent fixtures, however, due to darker past they are still hanging at the bottom of the table's first half where they desperately need a couple of points to overthrow the teams ahead. The visitors might take this fixture as a golden opportunity to claim their share at least a bit and they would try their best. Even though the visitors have a slightly lower goal scoring potential than the hosts and they are a bit struggling with their away form but they would rely on their stronger defense that may pose plenty of challenges to the home team's strikers. The hosts are still the favorite in this fixture but it is not much favorable to back them at such low odds @1.68 considering that there is a high chance for the game to end in a draw.
- Handicap +1 Sociedad @2.1 is a good grab
- Bet value: Medium-High
- Best odd for this fixture
4. Valladolid vs. Real Madrid
The visitors here would have surely found themselves swinging in the gardens of disappointment as they unexpectedly lost back-to-back games. They might have forgiven themselves for losing to Barca but the 1-4 defeat to Ajax would have surely snatched away a piece of their hearts. They have already lost hopes for the title this season and there might not be much to motivate them for now but this might still be a good time to keep their name high up the board with another victory as they visit an underdog and an out-of-form team. Even though the hosts managed to pull themselves a bit out of the relegation zone but they are consistently losing even at their home ground. We often found their defense collapsing which is evident from their almost twice the conceding rate than the scoring. It might not be a completely one-sided match as the visitors are on the road with slightly lower morals, therefore, it might not be a good choice to give away a goal advantage to the hosts for better odds but the visitors would still be able to outperform the hosts nonetheless.
- Away win @1.62
- Under 3.0 goals can be a valuable addition @1.89
- Bet value: Medium
- Best odd for this fixture
- Italy Serie A
- Bologna vs. Cagliari
Both teams in this fixture are having a terrible form because of which they are sitting at almost the bottom of the table with just a couple of ranks difference. The visitors, however, gained some motivation and claimed a couple of victories against Inter and Parma in their recent fixtures but those were the home fixtures and their away form is more than terrible as they have lost almost all games. The hosts are also enjoying a losing streak and that includes their performance at home ground which is not a healthy sign. Both teams have twice the goal conceding ratio as compared to scoring which means their defenses are far easier to breach. We might see the visitors taking the lead initially which would most probably be balanced by the home team or it would not be a surprise to observe a goalless fixture. In any case, a draw is the most logical of the choices here with under 2.5 goals option.
- Draw @3.49
- Under 2.5 goals
- Bet value: High
- Best odds for this fixture
2. Inter vs. SPAL 2013
The hosts failed to climb up the standings ladder and are currently maintaining the 4th place and the lower teams are catching up fast. They need to improve their form right now despite that their recent performance was a bit disappointing. They lost to Cagliari in an away fixture and could hardly hold a goalless draw with Frankfurt and a 3 goals draw with Fiorentina. This fixture might be a good option for them to mark a handsome victory but considering that they found it a bit hard to score lately it might not be a one-sided match. Though the visitors were trying to improve their form they were defeated in most of their recent fixtures. They still sometimes surprise us with a win against teams like Parma and a draw with Torino, therefore, I believe they would at least once break through the defense of the hosts. Nonetheless, the home team would need an extra effort to beat this opponent and the home fixture may prove to be a good air.
- Home win @1.4 or Handicap -0.5 @1.7
- Over 2.5 goals @1.85
- Bet value: Low
- Best odds for this fixture
3. Sampdoria vs. Atalanta
There is something definitely wrong with me and Atlanta, whenever I back them they lost/draw and vice versa. I might not be a great predictor of the outcomes but the visitors are an inconsistent team as well. Sometimes, they beat their opponent mercilessly with over 3 goals in away fixtures and other times they hardly manage to score at home grounds. Meanwhile, their opponent in this fixture has become a threat for them as they are claiming victories recently and the also defeated the visitors more times in their head-to-head fixtures. Now, I am not sure whether to trust their exotic away form or the current form of the visitors but a colleague here (@tales) has made the choice somewhat easier for me through his prediction model specifically arranged for draws, so be it.
- Draw @3.56
- Bet value: High
- Best odd for this fixture
4. Frosinone vs. Torino
The visitors in this fixture are like a sleeping giant, don't visit their den to wake them up and if they chase you to your ground, you might know the places to hide. The visitors have been excellent in their recent home fixtures but nearly terrible in the away ones as they have a whopping draw percentage of 85. I understand that their away fixtures have been slightly challenging but SPAL and Calcio! Well, nothing much to worry here as the host team has lost over 80% of their home fixtures even though they were also not a piece of cake but the host team's defenses are very welcoming. In addition, the visitors are trying to hold their spot in the standings which is becoming more and more challenging so they need a desperate victory here.
- Away win @2.12
- Bet value: Medium-high
- Best odd for this fixture
That is all for today, have a great betting Sunday and before you leave;
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