I am glad to have presented some fairly accurate Bundesliga picks this week as well. There were not many surprises in the first 3 fixtures except that Bremen scored very late in the game, during the Fergie time to be exact while Leverkusen and Borussia had scored earlier. Dortmund vs Mainz was the most exciting match as the hosts took a 2 goals lead in the first half and the visitors came back strong in the second one. They managed to pull of one-goal lead with their stunning attacks and over 70% of the possessions, however, all credit to the Dortmund's goalkeeper Burki who saved the day for the whole team.

As you might have read in that post that I was trying to offer better back odds because of which some of my bets remained unmatched till the very end. In addition, my over/under goal picks failed, therefore, despite the picks were accurate I ended with an NGO kind of scenario (i.e. no profit, no loss). Nonetheless, I am satisfied that after all these weeks I have got to know my strong points for at least one of the leagues and I shall be looking forward to increasing my stakes for its upcoming picks.

This time around, my unmatched bets present the value back odds availability so please feel free to pick and match. I guess, its time to move on and have a look at my predictions and picks for a slightly less predictable league i.e. Italy Serie A.

Predictions for Italy Serie A (Modified Image credits: besthqwallpapers)

Fiorentina vs. Bologna

Even though the home team is sitting at the bottom of the first half of the table while the visitors have just avoided the relegation zone they are in a completely opposite form. The hosts were supposed to be capping off the season's end in a style, however, the visitors are the one enjoying that part. The hosts have been winless in all of their recent fixtures and could only manage some draws while the visitors are on fire with their 70% of the wins in the recent fixtures. This is perhaps due to the recent change in their management that has motivated the whole team. Even Sassuolo and Torino could not stand in their way and I am one of the affectees of their marvelous form as I backed their opponents in those fixtures. The past experience compels me to change my mind about this team and this would be a good time to do so because their current opponent is in a much lesser form than their previous ones. This could very well be a tricky pick after all because it is still hard to believe that the visitors have recovered from the ruins and are up for beating the side they might have never dreamt of. It is still worth taking the chances on an away or a draw option given the feasibility of the odds and the away team's current potential.

  •  Away/Draw @1.879
  • 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals @1.98
  • Good possibility of a high-scoring tie so 2-2 is a good take. 
  • Bet value: Medium-High
  • Best odds for this fixture

Sampdoria vs. Genoa

The two teams with inconsistent forms are going to face each other in a derby this Sunday. The hosts are sitting about 6 ranks above the visitors with slightly more wins than the visitors, however, the away team holds the honor of beating Juventus recently. But, I would say that was more of a lucky win as the Juves were not playing with their full squad so it was kind of B team that they defeated. Nonetheless, they celebrated the victory only to face defeats in the fixtures that followed until they grabbed a draw with Napoli. Therefore, it is hard to say that the away team would pose much of a threat to the hosts, who are also not in a quite good form but capable of handling the situation. Moreover, the hosts have a good home form with 50% wins and the away form of the visitors is questionable. Despite that, both teams have a good defense and it would be hard for any side to hold a strong lead but I see the hosts doing more damage and are a better side to back in this fixture.

  •  Home win @2.35
  • 60% chance of Under 2.5 goals
  • Bet value: Medium-High
  • Best odds for this fixture

Sassuolo vs. Parma

The hosts in this fixture were in somewhat good form before and that means that they have lost it recently and are sitting just 3 positions above the visitors. The away side are also full of surprises as they could manage a draw with Juventus and Torino but lost to Frosinone. The visitors are not enjoying a consistent form as well but they have the potential to turn the tables at any time. The hosts are the favorite in this fixture owing to their home fixture where they are undefeated over 50% of the time and also due to their recent handsome 4 goal victory against the struggling Chievo. However, the visitors have almost similar form in the away fixtures. The host's goal-scoring potential is slightly better than the visitors but they have conceded more goals. I believe that the low odds @1.7 available for the home win do not justify their form or the superiority over their opponent thus it is more reasonable to back the Draw or Away option.

  • Away/Draw @2.23
  • Their recent fixtures were with an average goal of 4 so Over 2.5 goals @2.0
  • Bet Value: Medium-High
  • Best odds for this fixture

Chievo vs. Napoli

Both teams are the exact opposite where the hosts are from the bottom of the table while the visitors are from the top. I just added this info as a formality, of course, we all know the potential that Napoli has got but I am a bit concerned about their recent form. They have failed to mark a single victory in 3 of their recent fixtures, one of which was a draw against an underdog Genoa and the other one a defeat to the likes of another poor team Empoli. I have no idea if they are under some kind of a black spell recently or they know that they have claimed their spot up top and have lost an intention to aim for victory anymore. Whatever the case may be, I believe if they bring even 30% of their previous form to this fixture, they would return with a victory. Now the question would be about the strength of the victory and that is quite a tricky one because even in their previous head-to-head fixtures with this opponent, Napoli failed to beat the hosts with 2 or more goals. Therefore, backing the away win with 1.5 goals disadvantage still seems like a bad bet, however, I think that they would deliver their best to this fixture in order to reclaim their honor. I would still prefer to back them with a single goal disadvantage as a safe option.

Frosinone vs. Inter

The hosts are back to winning ways at the very end of the season with a motivation to pull themselves out of the relegation zone and honestly with other teams like Chievo hanging in there, they deserved less to be relegated. It is their bad luck that right after catching the spark they have to face the mighty Inter at home ground. There is a huge difference between their forms and there is probably no possible way on this planet that they can beat the visitors with their best, however, the most desirable catch for them would be a draw. The host's win against Fiorentina could have boosted their confidence and they might be aiming higher so soon but I think it is still out of question. The visitors lost some games but to Frankfurt and Lazio which are the sides with much better form the home team so I believe that giving a goal advantage to the home team would not still make a difference.

  • Handicap -1 Inter @1.94
  • Bet value: Low
  • Best odds for this fixture are not available on betscorum Lol (2.4 elsewhere)
Predictions for Italy Serie A (betscorum.com)

Rewards for engagement:

I have noticed that the users find it hard to engage in a discussion through the prediction posts even though I believe they have enough information for a healthy conversation. Anyways, I am going to begin adding some rewards for small quizzes or tips left in the comments from next time, so please stay tuned and look out for my next post under a similar title.

If you have any suggestions in this regard, leave a comment for a value upvote.

Have a great betting weekend and see you around.