Kelly Criteria

Value is the risk formula we'll bet, but no bet is 100% known. (We do not think of a concept of Şike :))

Because man is not a rational being, but a stock market, such as the amount of risk you can risk by calculating the probability of realization has the ability to see.

Every player playing by calculating his risk is closer to the win.

Larry Kelly, Jr. it has been formulated to distribute this with minimal risk.

It's a ''coincidence'!

A measure of how much we believe in the likelihood of an event is called probability.

For example, when a weather observer says that 65% of the weather is likely to be profitable the next day, he actually says: the same conditions before (the same one, is very approximate) 100 units occur, 65 has observed that it snows.

Therefore, if there are the same conditions, "65%" will be considered as snow.

With a video from the expert you can detail in your mind, just click on the word 'video'.

Probability Account For Betting

A bet can be opened with 2 or 3 odds.

For example, in football matches, odds for 3 (three) odds are opened on the side bets; The home team wins (1), the draw ends (0), the away team wins (2).

In basketball, if you receive a match result including the length of betting, 2 (two) betting options are opened.

For bets on 2 (two) bets such as top and bottom, bets are placed for each sport.

There is no third possibility for these types. When you want to make this account for the market of your choice; You must enter data accordingly when writing ratios to the calculation engines or when making manual calculations.

Mathematical representation:

("Probability (A)" = "Number of equal events pertaining to A" / "Total Number of Events")

If we try to find the possibility of the top-bottom game by this formula:

("Probability (probability of lap)" = "1 (tails)" / "2 (total probability = lower + upper)") = 0.5 = 50%.

People often confuse uniform distribution with random distribution.

After the letter in the mind of the income expectation occurs. This is called the "Gambler False." Someone who has played, he loses repeatedly, "I've lost this much, this time to win," he continues to play with hope.

So when it comes to black on the roulette we try to play "red". 50% probability would of course take place, but this time will spread. The probability that we play 50 may not be realized, but this possibility has been realized in the last 200.

Value Bet Calculation

By calculating the odds for betting and the probability of winning this option, we can decide whether the data is valued manually and through the engines. The result is a positive number.

Continuous betting on valuable and advantageous odds is a long-term, mathematically competitive way. Whether you win bets will lose importance for you. You're starting to fight the office and the logic of the office.

Nice idea to hit the bureau with your own gun :)

There are also engines and software available for you to find these bets. It automatically calculates the possibilities for you, calculates the payouts, and calculates the value values ​​and tells you with which percentage of your bet you should take this bet.

By playing this way systematically, you will be able to fold your case in the long term. It is also possible to make, track and earn these accounts manually. Maths were always, softwares in the last century :)

As an example, let's take a look at the odds given by abc site Barcelona - Real Madrid.

Barcelona: 2.40

Tie: 3.35

Real Madrid: 3.00

First we have to divide one by one.

(1 / 2.4) + (1 / 3.35) + (1/3) = 1.048

If we divide 1 to the value we found again

1 / 1.048 = 0.954 = 95.4%

In other words, the abc bureau is paying 954 tl to the winners for every 1000 rubles they receive from the losers, and 46 rubles for the cash.

The reimbursement rate is very important for us to calculate how much the betting company offers options. When we divide the reimbursement rate to the given rate, the result will give the possibility of that option. Calculating according to the rates;

Barcelona: 0,954 / 2,40 = 0,397 = 40%

Draw: 0,954 / 3,35 = 0,284 = 28%

Real Madrid: 0,954 / 3 = 0.318 = 32%

After keeping these values, let's look at the average and highest of the other betting offices.

As you can see, our rates of 2.40 - 3.35 - 3.00 are above average. But is it still worth playing? Let's find out.

Kelly Criteria

Now we'll see if our rate is worth playing.

Our formula:

f = (bp-q) / b

f =% of our cash register.

b = The net profit that the rate will bring to us. (For our example, 2.40-1 = 1.40)

p = probability of winning our option

q = probability of losing our option

For sample calculation; Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe Basketball Club

Let's try this formula on our example.

f = (1.40 * 39-61) / 1.40

f = -4.57

A negative value indicates that we should never play with that option, and it is even more risky for us to choose the opposite.

What if the odds were 2.65 and not 2.40?

In this case our formula;

f = (1.65 * 39-61) / 1.65

f = +2.03.

What is Payout? What is Office Profit Margin?

Payout is the percentage of money that offices distribute to those who play independently of the result for that bet.

For instance, when we get a bet by calculating a total of 1,000 TL money rate for each probability of a market; The amount of money to be returned to us from the market is 930 TL, the payout is 93%.

payout; the higher the higher the odds of the office, the greater the probability of winning for players.

To give an example from the above example; Galatasaray-Fenerbahce basketball competition, 173.5 upper and 173.5 lower options in order to get 1.85 and 2.01 rates opened.

From our TL 1,000 safe deposit box; 173.5 If we distribute the upper option to $ 520 from the 1.85 ratio and the $ 480 to the sub-option 173.5, we will have a return of around £ 960 regardless of the result of the bet.

This means that the payout has been entered as 96%. The 4% profit margin is the independent rate of the office.

Offices; as a form of profit. Determine the rates according to the probability; They also aim to distribute shares at the rate they calculate.

It has an inverse ratio to Payout. The lower the profit margin, the better for the players.

For example; for example, your office has opened the si ALT / TOP / bet for the same barem, the odds are equal. So 50% will come down to the top or 50%.

If our office had not pursued any profit, the odds would have been set at 2.00. Whatever the result, the payout would also be 100%.

Hence, the same bmaca of the same bareme is not 1.90-1.70 but 1.90-1. In this way, it gives you the chance to win more profit itself.

The 2-bet betting options, which correspond to the 50% probability bar in the world, open at odds of 1.83-1.92, while Iddaa leads the odds at 1.0.

Since we cannot change the odds, it is necessary to have an advantage over 50% in order to make an advantageous bet under these conditions.

In the light of the rates opened by the bureaus, taking into account the value of the bar opened by Iddaa, taking a betting rate according to the percentage of this probability they have miscalculated offers a long-term gain.

There is no voucher / bet, nor is there any certainty. So even if we see the possibility of 60% realization, it is always possible to lose 40% and it can happen.

"Banko coupon" do not be fooled by the rhetoric, but we are taking advantage of this calculation by taking advantage of increasing our chances.

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Good luck. :)