My prediction on today's Turkish derby Fenerbahce - Besiktas.
I still remember the last derby between Fenerbahce and Besiktas. It was the semifinal of the Turkish cup. In the first game that ended 2:2 the referee gave 3 red cards. The second game didn't finish at all. After a red card to Pepe fans started to fight and throw things on the field and bench. Besiktas' Coach Senol Günes was hit by a chair and had to go to the hospital. The referee had no choice but to abort the game. Afterward Besiktas demanded that Fenerbahce should be excluded of the cup, but the federation decided that the remaining time should be played. Besiktas refused to play and didn't show up. The Federation then excluded Besiktas from the cup for this season too.
Turkish derbies are always hard fights, but today's game will probably have even more fire in it.
Fenerbahce
They lost 5 of the 8 games this season. They conceded 12 goals in this 8 games and managed only to score 6. The new coach Phillip Cocu will probably have dreamed of better start. By winning today he could have a big impact on the fans. With another defeat he will probably be facing some difficult questions already in the press conference. In the last game they faced Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League and lost at home 1:4.
Besiktas
Besiktas started better than Fener. In the league they are 5th with 3 victories, 1 draw and 1 lost games. They won the first Euorpa League match at home against Sarpsborg with 3:1. Besiktas' strikers are definitely in better conditions right now. In the 12 official matches of the season they scored 27 times.
Conclusion
The head-to-head speaks for Fenerbahce and even more when they are at home. In the last 16 games at home against Besiktas they never lost. At the moment Besiktas seems the stronger team and they could definitely end this streak.
Given the special atmosphere for today after last games events I think it's hard to predict the outcome of the game. I think this will be a chaotic game with plenty of goals. The bookies seem to think the same way, I didn't found good odds for more than 2.5 goals. As Besiktas scores plenty of goals at the moment and Fener is not really strong, I bet that Besiktas will score at least 2 goals. Defender Martin Skrtel didn't play against Dinamo Zagreb and he could miss today's game too. The left defender Kaldirim is also injured. This rises the probability of my bet being the right one.
A bet on the number of cards seems also interesting in this game. I want to stick to my betting plan, therefore I place only one bet per day on other leagues than the Spanish or English.
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