This weekend was slightly better than the last one, but still some bad results. 3 / 9 bets won, Loss = 5.98 Units, ROI -24.92%.

The performance was a little bit better than last week, but I am still in the red numbers. I made a little analysis to see if my strategy could be wrong. As you know, I compare the probability of my calculations with the odds of the bookies. When the implied probability of the bookies are lower than my probability, I have a value bet. I asked myself, if it would be better to just bet on the calculated winner, ignoring the odds.

Alternative strategy

I looked at the stats and if I would have placed a bet on every game based on the predicted winner, the hit rate would have been 60%. What I don't know now, is how the odds of the bookies were.

Next week I will write down the odds for these bets too, to be able to compare the 2 strategies. I can imagine that with a hit rate of 60% with decent odds, I could have made some profit last weekend. I will keep an eye on that from now on.

Overview

Another bad week, only 3 bets right and a ROI of -24.92%.

Overall performance

The bad performance has an important impact in the overall statistics, the ROI is now at 8.83%. As long as it stays at this numbers, I would be very happy. I hope for a good weekend soon.