The Molali has made its predictions for the weekend, so I have made my bets. All bets and calculations for the next 10 games of LaLiga waiting for you below.

The rules have not changed since last week:

  • 1 bet per game
  • always the outcome with the highest probability
  • Odds 1.75+
  • Odds at least the same as Pinnacle
  • Stakes 1% of the bankroll = 0.17 SCR

My bets

Rules are there to be broken. Usually I stick to my rules, but this week I made an exception. For the first game Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol the Molali calculated a probability of 40% for Athletic to win and 34% for a draw. Applying the formula to weight the results that gives the more recent results more importance than the older ones the probabilities are 37% for an Athletic Bilbao win and for a draw. This means, both results have almost the same probability. The odds on the other hand show a huge difference: 1 @ 1.917, X @ 3.493. For this match I decided to ignore my rules because I think choosing the much higher odds is the right decision for this bet.

I hope that not all the unmatched bets will stay unmatched, but it's still a long time specially for the Sunday games, so I am optimistic.

Calculations