I'm not a big fan of outright bets the usual way people see it, meaning that you bet and hope the team lifts the trophy. Let's start with this information. I like the idea of buying an underestimated team and hedge ASAP (I mention this term very often and if you don't know what hedge means try googling it, but I will also write about this word in the context of professional betting in the upcoming weeks)

In this context, however, hedge means to buy an odd that is high and then buy the other possible selections at a higher price (later) when your own odd got cheaper. Imagine Tennis for example as it's easier, if a player you picked to win eventually wins the first set, then you can buy the adversary's win for a higher odd and "guarantee your profit". This is the concept of hedge in sports betting, protect against risk or even "guarantee a profit".

It's no secret that my main league is Brazil but because our intercontinental tournament is LIBS I get to know very decently LATAM football in general.

I will not discuss the correct odds for every team in the round of 16 here, that would take pages and pages and info I honestly do not have. But that doesn't mean I can't spot some value here....

I will write a little about what is clearly wrong in the market as of now!

I will experiment and make a "list", as direct as that, please feel free to comment this post format if you like it or not.

LIBERTADORES OUTRIGHT BETTING ABSURDS (CURRENT ODDS)

a) Palmeiras isn't the clear favorite. They just underwent a coach change and Scolari is far from his prime (the new coach , that one from the 7x1 and 2002 title of WC), Palmeiras is a very odd club in terms of internal fights, and his last spell was a complete outburst which eventually led Palmeiras into relegating. We can discuss potential qualities of Palmeiras, but there is no UNIVERSE in which this Palmeiras is a safer bet than the oiled team of the title holders Gremio, for istance.

b) Santos, Corinthians and Palmeiras have odds kind of similar to Boca Juniors, Gremio and River Plate. Santos, Palmeiras and Corinthians just fired their own coaches. Gremio is the title holder and as discussed here they are still doing very well. I simply believe based on last Libertadores and current situation in Argentina that there is absolutely no scenario I can see this treble of clubs listed above being at the same level of the big Argentine duo and Gremio

c) Specific info on Santos: the club just ended the 1st match with interim coach in a big confusion and nearly violence episode. Is this team that close to Gremio?

d) Cruzeiro has odds of over 10 available, and they have the same coach, tactics and squad as last season. They are the very Brazilian favorites together with Gremio, and they are listed below the "problematic 3" in the average odds as of now

Any betting tips? If you grasp the concept of hedge within this context, perhaps buying Cruzeiro and Gremio and holding 1 or 2 stages could prove to be profitable.