I start a series of articles that say you need to learn if you want, at the least, to waste your bank at a slower pace ;)
Probability Theory is our EVERYTHING (Part One)
There is such a thing in the universe, and her name is Probability. The probability is a fundamental thing as much as mathematical laws, physical and the other (Google is for the aid). The problem only in the fact that the laws of PT (Probability theory) are visible to the naked eye, but don't become aware in the mind, which is not ready for it.
The probability means the way that how often this or that event will occur at its infinite repetition. The simplest and most hackneyed example is the experience with a coin.
We have an ideal coin; we exclude its falling on the edge, and many external factors (aerial currents, torsion speed, etc.). We get two probabilities — 50% of a head falling and 50% of a tail falling. It means the falling of this or that side is equally likely. During the experiment, we can find that when we have 10 coin tosses, heads come up 8 times, and tails do two, or vice versa. What's wrong?! The issue is the small number of tosses — this little, but nasty problem is called dispersion. There will be a separate topic about the dispersion.
Let's increase the number of coin tosses up to 100, the quantity of a head falling or tail one will fluctuate in the ratio of 40:60 or 60:40. If we previously had a percentage ratio of 80%:20%, then now we have 60%:40%. If we increase up to 1000 tosses, the percentage will be within 44% and 56%. As should be obvious, upon the increase of the number of events, the dispersion and the scatter limits decrease.
Every sports match possesses its probability; that is, the result of a sporting event is a random variable!
Thus, the outcome of the event on which you stake is known to nobody in advance (the exception is a fixed game) but has a specific probability of occurrence. It is important to note that even bookmakers don't know about the exact probability of occurrence of this or that outcome. (Yes, welcome, conspiracy theoreticians). From this, we conclude that there is no 100% event probability in the stakes, and even in the fixed matches because they can also misfire. So, the first rule you need to remember is that there are no sure things, 100% certainties, ironclad forecasts, iron-tight stakes, bets without loss and other crap, which some people so diligently promote...(translated from Russian slang)