This exercise is looking for value bets that may or may not exist on ScorumBet and to see what we can find, if anything.

When we value bet we are not looking for bets that can guarantee profit, that can only be done if you could actually predict the outcome. Instead we are looking for bets that offer better odds than those of the actual implied probability. That said lets start looking.

Mexico Liga MX

Monarcas vs. Lobos BUAP Under 2.5 Goals on offer 2.07 SCR @1.965

Studying this fixture we come up with a probability of 63% for Under 2.5 Goals which converts to decimal odds of 1.5873 anything on offer above this is value, so bet is taken.

We took the full 2.07 SCR

Betfair is offering odds of 2.2 on Under 2.5 Goals so we take a little bit there as well.

This is all about the probability model and looking at both teams previous scores this is an unlikely Under 2.5 Goals, however we put trust in the probabilities over the long term and try to make value bets where we can.

https://betscorum.com/en-us/game/2608

Puebla vs. Pumas UNAM Under 2.5 Goals on offer 2.58 SCR @1.742

Studying this fixture we come up with a probability of 72% for Under 2.5 Goals which converts to decimal odds of 1.3889 anything on offer above this is value, so bet is taken.

We took the full 2.58 SCR

Betfair is offering odds of 1.9 on Under 2.5 Goals so we take a little there also.

https://betscorum.com/en-us/game/2610

Spain La Liga

Real Sociedad vs. Levante Under 2.5 Goals on offer 195 SCR @2.032

Model is suggesting 63% for Under 2.5 Goals which is odds of 1.5873 so odds of 2.032 represents value and a 50 SCR bet was taken.

Betfair is offering 1.98 on Under 2.5 Goals which also makes the Scorum Bet look good value and certainly a fair bet if the Exchange users analysis of the outcome is more reliable than ours! So we also took some at Betfair as well.

https://betscorum.com/en-us/game/8787

Conclusion

Two games from the Mexico LX league have been found, not much available to take and odds are way down on that offered on Betfair, which makes me a little concerned the model is a bit off kilter with that league. The Sociedad v Levante pick looks solid enough and there was plenty available there as well, so we took the full 50 SCR which will be the maximum bet going forward for this little exercise.

We will take this little project forward with some record keeping of our stakes so we can see how we are performing over the period which is something every bettor should do.

What we are doing with value betting is trying to put ourselves in the position of the house in Casino games. The Casino has rock solid maths in their favour, so whilst they can lose in the short term due to variance and luck of players, long term they will generate a profit. If anyone has doubts on this, I would suggest a look at the luxury available at places such as Las Vegas, millions of pounds are made there based on the rock solid maths of probabilities.

To try to match that we need a mathematical model or simulation which can give us an accurate or near to accurate evaluation of the outcomes to certain matches and then look for spots that suggest there is an edge or value to be made in betting. We are not betting based on assumptions or instincts, we only bet when there are clear indications to do so. Unfortunately modelling football outcomes is not the easiest thing in the world to do and a tremendous amount of time and effort is put in to the development and refinement of such systems.

Total bet 54.65 SCR