Everton v Liverpool should be one of the most passionate most anticipated matches of the season and seeing such an occasion devoid of fans will really bring home just what we are missing as a result of the prolonged lockdown and social distancing. On the 18th September 1948, 78, 299 people watched a 1-1 draw between these 2 clubs separated by the width of the river Mersey, today that figure will be closer 299.

For the home side, this game certainly gives an opportunity for them to test just how far they have come under Ancelotti's management. The 5-2 mauling they suffered at Anfield in early December cost then manager Marco Silva his job. The side sat 18th in the league with just 4 wins in 15 games and were in danger of being pulled into a relegation battle. Since then Ancelloti has delivered the same number of victories in his first 10 games in charge to pull the toffees up the league and yet some of the concerns around Everton's form and style of play remain.

The Toffees have not recorded a clean sheet in their last 7 matches and went into the lockdown off the back of a 4 nil hammering to Chelsea. Ancelotti will doubtless have used this break to have worked on the defence but to have to play a side as capable as Liverpool in the first game back will certainly put that preparation under the microscope. Individual errors have often been the undoing of Everton this season and from what we've seen in the fixtures since the restart, we are likely to see more of them today.

At the other end, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a man transformed under Ancelotti with 8 goals in 12 games since the Italian took over, the joint-most in the Premier League during that period (Raul Jimenez, Wolves also has 8). There is no doubting that on paper Everton have a good looking squad and why shouldn't they given the amount of money that they have spent over the last couple of seasons. With very little to play for this year, I would expect Ancelotti to view the next couple of months as an extended pre-season for 2020/21 when I'm sure he and the Everton board will have hopes of challenging for a European spot.

At the same time, the chances of Everton turning things around in the next couple of years would be greatly enhanced if they could shake the sizeable monkey that sits on their back in the form of this fixture. Everton have failed to win a Merseyside Derby in almost 10 years and the extent of the psychological block they face against Liverpool was most evident when these 2 sides met in the FA Cup earlier this year. Everton dominated against an almost unrecognisable Liverpool side with Klopp choosing to rest most of his star names but could not get the ball in the back the net before 18-year-old Curtis Jones smashed home his debut goal in 1st team football.

Liverpool, therefore, will be confident that they can keep their unbeaten run going against the old enemy but at the same time they have not found winning at Goodison Park an easy task. Their last win here came back in 2016 and since a thrilling 3-3 draw in 2013 this fixture has produced just 5 goals in as many games.

As noted in my preview on the impact of the break on EPL teams both these sides are at their best when playing a high-press but given the warmer temperatures and lack of match fitness, those tactics may have to be tempered. I've also maintained that the one thing that this Liverpool squad misses is a genuine creative force to play in-between the lines and unlock organised defences. I think as we progress over the next 9 matches the absence of that type of player might become even more apparent for Liverpool and it is something they may yet seek to address in the transfer window.

The bookies are rightly looking at the porous nature of Everton's defence v a dangerous Liverpool attack and expecting there to be goals in this match. However, as we've seen from the games played so far hitting your straps after such a long break is difficult and I can't imagine that an Everton side who have generally had success at home in at least resisting this Liverpool team will be in any mode to make things easier for their neighbours this afternoon. As such, under 2.5 goals looks a pretty decent value bet to me.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @2.25 or better

.

Bet here on betscorum

This post is written as part of the Scorum Loyalty Program