We have 3 fairly uninspiring Premier League fixtures this afternoon featuring 6 teams between them who served up 68 draws so far this season. At the odds on offer, I feel betting on all 3 being drab matches of under 2.5 goals and at least one of them finishing as a draw should deliver me a profit.
Brighton v Newcastle
But for mini-revivals for both these sides since the restart, this fixture could have been a real relegation 6 pointer. Instead, back-to-back wins for Brighton early doors all but ended any immediate concerns they may have over going down while Newcastle's form even threatened a run into the top half of the table.
Since those heady days of June when we were all feeling a sense of gay abandon after lockdown, reality has somewhat returned with these 2 securing just a solitary point between them from their last 3 fixtures.
Newcastle's cause isn't helped today by something of a mini injury crisis. Fabian Shar is definitely out after he dislocated his shoulder in the defeat against Spurs, while fans favourite Allan Saint-Maximin tweaked a hamstring in the same match and is rated doubtful for this game alongside other first-team regulars Jamaal Lascelles and Isaac Hayden.
History as well is very much in our favour, with 3 of the last 4 games between these 2 finishing all square including the reverse fixture back in September that was a nil-nil thriller. More of the same please lads...
Prediction: Draw @3.6 or better
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @1.84 or better
Sheffield United v Everton
On paper this looks like a home banker with Sheffield United having won all 4 of their previous fixtures at Bramall Lane but if their performance at Leicester is anything to go by then the Blades might just be running out of steam as the season draws to a close.
Manager Chris Wilder has certainly hinted that he will be swinging the axe following their 2-0 defeat last week and it is noticeable that while his side have enjoyed empathic home wins over the likes of Spurs and Chelsea in recent weeks, they've generally struggled to be quite so convincing against teams below them in the league who come to take a point. This season, they have dropped points at home against Newcastle, Watford, Brighton and Southampton and recorded only narrow victories against plenty of the other side in the bottom third.
Everton meanwhile are still struggling to find an identity. Ancelotti has certainly steadied the ship since taking charge and it's noticeable that they have tightened up at the back dramatically since Marco Silva left. Generally speaking their matches since the restart have been very close fought affairs with the exception of a 3-0 loss at Wolves.
Everton have a poor away record this season but Ancelotti himself can boast the fact that he has never lost a game against a promoted side in 14 previous fixtures. This one is likely to be a fairly drab affair with a draw a pretty decent bet.
Prediction: Draw @3.4 or better
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @1.67 or better
Wolves v Crystal Palace
Much like Sheffield United, this Wolves team tends to have an issue in regards dropping points at home to sides they really should be beating. Only Newcastle (8) have recorded more draws at home than Wolves (7) this year but given there lofty position in the table that record is surely hurting Midlanders more than the Geordies.
This, of course, isn't a new phenomenon for Wolves either. They were guilty of exactly the same problem last season too with their overall home record looking pretty much the same in 2018/19 as it is in 2019/20.
Ultimately this is a Wolves side set-up to be effective on the counter-attack but when they are asked to make the play themselves and break-down opposition camped around their own area then they don't quite have the quality of player between the lines to do so.
As pointed out in a recent post they are also fantastically slow starters to games which doesn't help the situation either. One could argue that a team like Liverpool is not overly different in their formation and tactical set-up to that of Wolves but in any game at Anfield, the home side will come out and look to smash the opposition in the first 15-20mins before then settling back to pick them off on the counter-attack. Nuno Espírito Santo's side could learn from that and really look to put their foot down earlier in these kinds of games.
Palace meanwhile started off after lockdown in rampaging form but have now lost 5 in a row! They will travel to Wolves with the express intent of parking the bus to avoid it being 6 on the trot and I don't expect them to provide very much of a threat up top at all. In fact this season they have the lowest expected goals on their travel in the league (15.35 from 18 games to date).
Prediction: Draw @4.2 or better
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @1.67 or better
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