The last few seasons I've become much better at handicapping the NFL, but I can't take all the credit for my improvement. I've utilized a lot of information from experts, amateurs, and websites that are free for everyone to use. It can be really tricky and sometimes too much information can be just as bad as too little. At the end of the day you have to assess all the information, analyze the games, and make the picks. There's a lot of useful information out there and I plan on sharing some of it with you here.
Podcasts
I listen to and follow numerous podcasts about the NFL and handicapping in general. I started out years ago listening to the Bill Simmons podcast over on ESPN. Every week Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal guess the lines for the weeks upcoming games. They analyze the game and try to figure out what the books will set the spread at. It's a very entertaining podcast and these guys are both amateurs and most of the time the picks they like are what would be described as "public plays". If you are interested in following this specific podcast you can find it here.
Another podcast I started following last season was the "Beating The Book" podcast with Gill Alexander. This show I've found to be especially helpful. Chris Andrews from The South Point Hotel and Casino Sportsbook joins Gill every week to guess what the lines should be for the next weeks games. He looks at the game from the perspective of a sportsbook which can provide invaluable information on what they believe is going to happen and "where they have to set the line" to get even action on both sides. When you hear him say something like "we need this side to come in" it's usually a good indication that that side will likely come in. In addition to the weekly guess/set the lines podcast Gill will bring on a guest expert handicapper later in the week to analyze the coming weeks games. You can find his podcast here.
One more podcast that I've found to be especially helpful is called "The Sharp 600" by Joe Fortenbaugh of covers.com. In this podcast they do a quick rundown of the weeks games. Usually a guest handicapper will come on and give out some plays that he likes and then Joe gives his own plays at he end of the show. The show is typically short, the "600" in the name means 600 seconds, which is only 10 minutes and is about the length of every show. They usually provide some pretty good trends to keep an eye on which can be very beneficial if you find teams fitting those spots. You can find his podcast here.
Handicapping Websites
I've found a few handicapping websites that give out some good information specific to the NFL. One of them I personally like is thespread.com, which gives comprehensive information on just about every sport you can bet on and even some expert picks from time to time on their blog page. One tool that I've found to be helpful for the NFL is their "public bets" option which shows what % of the public is betting on which side and shows the information in graph form along with the current line and opening line for reference. You can find that information here.
Another website that provides similar information but in a slightly different format is vegasinsider.com. In addition to the line movements and percentage of plays on a side they provide the lines at a bunch of different sports books in Vegas and how the line has moved throughout the week prior to the game at each book. This information can be valuable in assessing whether the side you like is the one everybody else likes or if you're seeing the game from a different angle than the general public. To get the information go to vegasinsider.com, click NFL, then Matchups, and then find the game you want to analyze and click on line movements below the two teams. The picture below shows where to find the line movements link.
Do you listen to any podcasts or use any specific websites to assist you in your handicapping that I didn't list? Let me know in the comments. Thanks.
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