Last week my plays went 2-0 (Rams -2.5 and Colts +6.5) and my stay aways were also 2-0 in that the side I "liked" lost and lost convincingly meaning it was a good thing I passed on those 2 games. Now it's on to week 2 and this week is known collectively as "over reaction week". The only data we have is what happened last week and how can you know how good or bad a team is with only 1 week of data? Example 1, The Bucs looked terrible against the 49ers throwing 2 pick 6s and losing by double digits at home while the Panthers played very competitively against the NFC Champion Rams only losing by 3 points. Fast Forward to Thursday nights game in Carolina where the Bucs pulled off an improbable road upset at the hands of the heavily favored Panthers. Rest assured there will be other games that play out exactly the same way come Sunday. Big favorites that cruised last week will lose or barely win, and teams that played like garbage last week will turn it around and be competitive shocking everybody in the process. The trick is to be on the right side of these games.

The Two Games I'm Betting

The first game I'm betting is the Steelers -3.5 over the Seahawks. The Steelers looked as bad as any team can look last week and were thoroughly embarrassed in front of a nationwide audience by the Patriots. I think this week they clean up their mistakes come out with a solid game plan and blow out the Seahawks at home. Seattle barely escaped with a win against the Bengals last week at home and there isn't any proof that the Bengals are a good team, which means perhaps the Seahawks are not a good team either. They also have a history of stinking it up on the road while the Steelers tend to play way better at home. Couple those trends together and this is a must play in my book. Play Steelers -3.5.

Prime time matchup, Eagles at Falcons, Eagles favored by -2. Another situation where 1 team played like absolute crap (Falcons) Vs a team that came alive in the 2nd half and nearly covered a double digit spread on their 2nd half performance alone. The Eagles came out flat last week against Redskins and if they do that again this week they will be in big trouble. This is the home opener for the Falcons and it's very possible they just played a very very good Viking defense last week that kept them in check. I expect an inspired performance out of the Falcons in this one to make up for how badly they played last week. This line opened at a pick em which means Vegas probably expects Atlanta to win but knew the money would come in on the Eagles, they were right about the money coming in on the Eagles, now they need to be right about the game to take in the profits. I expect they will be right and I'm playing the Falcons +2.

My Stay Aways

Chargers -2 at Detroit. The Chargers seem to play better on the road every year than they do at home and it's definitely tempting to bet on them against a Lions team that just blew an 18 point 4th quarter lead to end up in a tie. The Chargers just have too many injuries right now, not to mention this is a cross country trip and an early game for them. Typically I'd be all over this one but right now this is a pass for me.

Rams -2 vs the Saints. I usually love the revenge game angle, especially when it's a playoff loss revenge game but this game is a pass for me. The Rams have spent the better part of a year hearing about how they didn't deserve to make the Super Bowl yada yada yada, not to mention the Saints suing the league over the missed pass interference call. This in my opinion will have an impact on the motivation in the game. Had the Saints just let it go, I would probably be all over them in this spot but as it is the Rams are playing to prove they were the better team last year and to shut up all the naysayers. They also have Cooper Kupp back at their disposable and a healthier Todd Gurley than they had in last years NFC Championship game. If anything, I kind of like the Rams at home against a team that is usually bad on the road and on grass. With the conflicting motivations in this game I'll take a pass.

Good luck with your bets!