Betting / friendly

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Fraste Bets : 15/11/2018 Friendlies
Source: Getty Images A week of international football awaits us and here I will be providing you with my thoughts on these games, as well as some necessary statistics that can help out. Iran vs. Trinidad & Tobago (Friendly International) Venue: Tehran, Iran Source: Soccerway First up are Iran and Trinidad & Tobago who will face each other in a friendly match in the Azadi Stadium in Tehran. There's a lot of reason to go with Iran for this game. The nation was part of the latest World Cup in Russia where it played defensively, but competed very well in a group with Spain (1-0 loss) and Portugal (1-1 draw). Despite not winning these two matches, the level of competitiveness should be an indicator. Besides that Iran has an impressive home record, winning 9 out of the last 10 matches and drawing the other one (vs. Syria). No wonder why they entered the top 30 of the FIFA ranking and they are even in 18th place at the ELO rankings. The Dynamite Boys of TNT on the other hand are coming into the game with a much less impressive record. They won only 3 of their last 10 matches and lost 4 of them. When it comes to their away record, it changes into just 2 wins and 6 losses in the last 10 games. They are currently sitting in 93rd position of the FIFA ranking and 99th on the ELO rankings. Head to head Iran is winning the contest as well as they lead 1-0 after they won 2-0 in a friendly match in São Paulo in June 2014. I believe they can repeat this effort in their own stadium. Maybe they will even score more than that, but I will go for the double bet below. My prediction : Iran vs. Trinidad & Tobago 2-0 Uzbekistan vs. Lebanon (Friendly International) Venue: Gdansk, Poland Don't be fooled about this match. This game is not being played in either country, but will take place in Poland. Therefore home and away results don't matter as much as they would normally do. For this reason we will be looking at the latest 10 matches both teams played. In my understanding Uzbekistan is generally seen the better of the two, the question is if this is really the case. Uzbekistan's last 10-match record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. In all fairness the opposition they faced in the 8 matches that they did not win is normally considered better than them (Uruguay / Senegal / South Korea etc.). Lebanon's record is 7 wins, 2 draws and only 1 loss vs. Kuwait. There is the immediate reason why those 7 wins might not be worth as much as it looks like. Lebanon's opponents were generally weaker nations (Hong Kong / Malaysia / North Korea etc.). The one stand-out result was against North Korea when they trashed them 5-0. Another good indicator is the head to head results. The two countries faced each other on 5 earlier encounters in the last 10 years. Uzbekistan won four times and one time the match ended in a draw. In total Uzbekistan scores 8 goals against 1 of Lebanon. Lebanon is ranked higher in the FIFA rankings (82nd and 94th for Uzbekistan), whereas Uzbekistan is ranked higher in the ELO Ratings (57th and 89th for Lebanon). In situations like this where there is such a big gap in the information of the two rankings, I tend to lean towards the ELO rankings more than the FIFA rankings. My prediction : Uzbekistan vs. Lebanon 2-0 Kuwait vs. Bahrain (Friendly International) Venue: Kuwait City This Arabic match will be hard to predict. Kuwait (FIFA 157th / ELO 100th) won 2 of ther last 10 matches, drew 3 of them and lost 5. The exact same applies for their home matches. Bahrain (FIFA 113th / ELO 107th) won one game more (3), drew 5 and lost only 2 of the lost 10 matches. Their away record with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses is slightly worse, but still better than Kuwait's home record. It has to be said that Kuwait generally faces stronger opponents than Bahrain does, but then Bahrain seems to be a (slightly) stronger opponent too. Since 2001 both nations met each other an impressive 17 times. Those results won't really help us make a decision here as Kuwait won 6 of these matches, 4 ended up in a draw and the other 7 were won by Bahrain. That slight head to head advantage that Bahrain seems to have is what I will go for. My prediction : Kuwait vs. Bahrain 1-2 Poland vs. Czech Republic (Friendly International) Venue: Gdansk, Poland The second match that will be played in the Energa Stadium today. The first one involving European teams. Poland (FIFA 21st / ELO 30th) were present at the World Cup in Russia earlier this year, but did not impress as they did not come out of the group despite being classified as group hosts before the tournament started. They did win their final match against Japan, but at that time had already lost against Senegal and Colombia. They only won 3 of their last 10 games, drawing another 3 and losing 4. Poland is on a bad run, as also their start in the UEFA Nations League has not been impressive. In a tough group with Italy and Portugal they barely stand a chance. At home their record is again 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. How will they perform against the Czech Republic? The Czech Republic (FIFA 48th / ELO 41st) recorded 5 wins and 5 losses in their 10 last games. Their away record is slightly better with 6 wins and 4 losses. We have to take Poland's better opponents into consideration and the fact that the Czech Republic hardly ever is involved in a draw. From the last seven times both nations faced each other Poland won 4 times and the Czech Republic record 3 wins. All seven times this was a home win. I feel the home advantage will indeed seal the deal here for the Polish. My prediction : Poland vs. Czech Republic 2-1 Israel vs. Guatemala (Friendly International) Venue: Netanya, Israel An interesting clash between a (for the the football world) European country and a Middle/North American country. Israel (FIFA 91st / ELO 67th) is playing at home, which will give them quite an advantage in my opinion, despite losing 6 of their last 10 home matches, winning 3, drawing 1. But Guatemala (FIFA 147th / ELO 78th) record also 6 defeats and 3 draws in their last 10 away games. That win was a 0-4 win agains St. Vincent & The Grenadines. According to the FIFA rankings the difference between the two teams is massive, however according to the ELO ratings it is in Israels favour, but not as much. I couldn't find any previous matches between the two nations. My prediction : Israel vs. Guatemala 3-1 Republic of Ireland vs. Northern Ireland (Friendly International) Venue: Dublin With Brexit in the news so often these days this All-Irish derby is going to be a very interesing one. It's going to be the first meeting between the two teams since 24 May 2011 when The Boys in Green beat the Green and White Army 5-0. Since then the Northern Irish team has been performing much better at international level and they even qualified for the Euro 2016, which the Republic did as well. Yet after Euro 2016 both teams performed slightly less good then they did shortly before that. Generally seen I believe that the quality between the teams is pretty close right now. The FIFA rankings imply same (33rd for the Republic and 34th for Northern Ireland, ELO ratings show 42nd and 51st as rankings in the Republic's favour). In history both teams met just 10 times since 1978. The Republic recorded 4 wins, 2 games ended in a draw and Northern Ireland won 2 occassions. The Republic of Ireland won 2 of their last 10 matches, drew 3 and lost 5, Northern Ireland did the same in their away record. Whereas The Republic won 3 of their last home matches and drew another 3. My prediction : Republic of Ireland vs. Northern Ireland 2-1 Germany vs. Russia (Friendly International) Venue: Leipzig, Germany I am honestly wondering how much of a friendly match this is going to be. Russia (FIFA 41st / ELO 25th) being the home nation of the last World Cup in which they overachieved, against Germany (FIFA 14th / ELO 9th) that underachieved at the World Cup as well as so far in the UEFA Nations League. They have an important match coming up later this week in order to avoid relegation from the highest division in that league. Still Germany will feel the need to proof that they still have what it takes to beat countries of a certain level. If they fail to win this, how much confidence will they have later this week when they face a renewed Dutch side? Joachim Löw's time at the Mannschaft seems to come to an end, but perhaps this week, can make it last a bit longer. In order to do so, the German players would help him best with two wins. Six losses and a draw in their last matches is far below the German standards. Their home record on the other hand is still good with 6 wins, 3 draws and only one loss against Brazil in March 2018. Russia on the other hand with the good World Cup in their pocket started off the Nations League quite well (League B however) with 2 wins and a draw. They only lost 2 of their last 10 games (both at the World Cup, the last one being beaten on penalties against Croatia). They however lost 3 of their last 10 away matches, some of them against "weaker" countries like Qatar and Austria. I believe Germany will be the better team here and secures a comfortable win. My prediction : Germany vs. Russia 3-0 England vs. United States (Friendly International) Venue: London, England England (FIFA 5th / ELO 8th) will welcome the United States (FIFA 23th / ELO 27th) at Wembley and will thus be the favorite for the win. The United States have been very inconsistent with some good (a 1-1 draw against France for instance) and some bad (2-4 home defeat against Colombia) lately. England's 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 10 matches does not seem to show the right strength of the team, knowing that those 4 losses include 2 defeats at the World Cup against Belgium, as well as their semi final loss after extra time against Croatia. The United States recorded four 1-1 draws in their last 7 away games, including France, Portugal and Mexico as their opponents. That is pretty impressive for a side that didn't qualify for the World Cup being eliminated by Panama. England's more important game will be a few days later against Croatia in an aim to top the Nations League group, however they would want to get into that game with confidence and therefore they will show the USA how it is done. My prediction : England vs. United States 3-0 Peru vs. Ecuador (Friendly International) Venue: Lima, Peru We finish this blog with a South American derby between Peru (FIFA 20th / ELO 14th) and Ecuador (FIFA 61st / ELO 32nd). The home nation performed at the World Cup, did not qualify out of the group, but did impress a lot of people with their style of play. They were probably better than Denmark, but the lack of finishing abilities during those World Cup matches didn't help them further. After the World Cup they recorded two losses against The Netherlands and Germany, but also a 3-0 win over Chile. Peru is very strong at home winning 8 of their last 10 matches (1 draw vs. Colombia / 1 loss vs. Brazil). Ecuador did not qualify for the World Cup and more or less switched places with Peru over time. Ecuador used to be that team that qualified from time to time for the World Cup, now Peru seems to be that team. The head to head results show that as Ecuador won 7 and lost only 4 matches against Peru. A total of 5 times matches between the two countries ended up in a draw. With 4 wins in their last 10 matches Ecuador actually don't perform that bad, but on the road they are currently very week with no wins, 3 draws and 7 losses. My prediction : Peru vs. Ecuador 2-0 Please let me know your thoughts on these games! I plan to release another version for the UEFA Nations League matches too.
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