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costanza
Week 22 Results | 10W-09L-03P | -0.709 Units Loss
I'm making these posts weekly as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will always contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market. The winter break did not seem to have brought a change in form and priority right now is still very much on damage control trying to turn things around again. Mostly the bigger plays I take some extra on in BTC have been a total trainwreck and it feels impossible to get a win. Pretty much the exact opposite of September where literally everything won. The 2 bigger pre-game positions on Lokeren +0.5 and the Under 2.5 in Moeskroen vs Oostende both lost and were simply poor bets. I have reduced my stakes a bit both out of caution and necessity after using some of my betting earnings to pay for my 2019 expenses. I always try to be 1 big downswing ahead meaning that I want to have enough bankroll left even after going through a major downswing even if I just had one. If this means taking a step back then that is what I do. Betting can be brutal and things can go down really quickly if you refuse to move down when needed. Ensuring I'm able to stay in it for the long run always has priority over going for potential short term gains for me. One of the major problems when staking too big in relation to your bankroll is that it can bring about scared money which can highly affect your decision making. If you want to win you simply have to be willing to lose and go for somewhat higher odds (2.40-3.00 range) and I certainly feel less confident taking those right now. This will be one of my working points the next couple weeks as we move forward in the season. I continue sharing my live bets on our SBC Discord Server (message costanza#2335 on Discord to get an invite) and they do quite well. Right now the market seems more suited for Live bets instead of pre-game positions since everything is set extremely tight and many teams are simply unreliable. I had 7 live bets this week of which 2.5 Won, 2 Lost and 2.5 Pushed. I made a post on the results from these bets 2 weeks ago and will do another update when the regular season ends... Discord Live-Bets Belgian League Stvv vs Genk Under 4 @ 1.940 (18' 1-0) LOST Racing Genk -0.5 @ 2.010 (63' 1-1) WON Standard -0.75 @ 1.81 ( 0-0 32') HALF WON Standard vs Kortrijk Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.917 (5-0 37') WON Cercle Brugge 1st Half +0 @ 1.97 (34' 0-0) PUSH Cercle Brugge +0 @ 2.00 (0-0 50') PUSH Club Brugge vs Charleroi Over 1.5 @2.19 (79' 0-1) LOST I thought about starting a new graph for the 2nd part of the season, but with 8 weeks left I will continue and maybe make a separate one for the Playoffs. I'm still very much in range of what I can expect despite a long slow grind down. The longer-term Results Graph I posted a while back in my article on Downswings still looks quite solid and I'm not just worried yet right now that it's all still very much profitable even though I will have to step it up. Let me know in the comments how your betting week was!
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