Betting / national league picks

Fraste Bets : Friday 16/11/2018
Another bunch of international football/soccer matches coming up. Here I will share my picks and ideas for Friday 16 November 2018. I will also dedicate a post to keep track of the results, but I will do that separately. Yesterday I split up the friendly matches from the UEFA Nations League, today I will combine all bets in one post, starting off with the matches in the Nations League. All stakes are 10 units, except for correct score predictions, those are 2 units, unless described differently. Netherlands vs. France (UEFA Nations League) Both The Netherlands and France come into this game knowing that after this match Germany can be dropped from the group with one more game to play. With a draw France secures themselves a spot in the final four of the competition, whereas the Netherlands will be allowed to lose against Germany with 2 goals with a 0-0 draw, or with 3 goals with a score draw. The Netherlands is certainly climbing out of the deep valley they fell into a couple of years ago. New young players have added a quality improvement to the squad and it seems like the Netherlands are on their way back to the top. For this match I predict a 1-1 or 2-2 score draw. Slovakia vs. Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) Ukraine tops this group with nine points out of three matches. Slovakia is bottom of the group and has not yet won a single point. In Ukraine the home nation won this tie 1-0. Despite not having any points so far Slovakia can still stay away from relegation if they win this and the next match against their former countrymen Czech Republic. Ukraine cannot be overtaken and are already promoted. They are probably not so motivated for this game, whereas Slovakia will give it all. Wales vs. Denmark (UEFA Nations League) This is a Group B top clash, as both countries have the opportunity to promote to Group A for the next Nations League. Wales has won twice and has six points after they won against the Republic of Ireland twice. They lost however to Denmark away (2-0) which is the main reason why the Danish are still a contender for the promotion spot as they only drew 0-0 in Dublin. A Welsh home win would secure their promotion, confirming the rise in their performances in the last four years. If Denmark can draw this match, then a home win against the Irish will secure their promotion and a Danish win today will also be enough to secure that. I predict a small win for the Danish here. Cyprus vs. Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) Group 3 of League C is an exciting one. Both Norway and Bulgaria have nine points out of four matches. Both nations will play Cyprus and Slovenia the next couple of days to decide which nation will promote, the relegation battle on the other hand is still open as well. Whereas a surprise comeback from Cyprus is potentially possible, but very unlikely to happen. Bulgaria's away record is not very impressive with seven losses and a draw in their last ten away matches. It seems like Cyprus is capable of taking a draw out of this one, but history shows Bulgaria generally has the overhand against Cyprus, so I will go for a small away win. Slovenia vs. Norway (UEFA Nations League) As described above, Norway is in the same situation as Bulgaria and will start with an away match. Slovenia is in danger of relegating to the lower league due to a loss against Cyprus in September. They will have to win to keep their chances open, but it will be very tough. A draw seems to be the highest achievement they can reach in this game. Norway would want to win this one to keep their promotion options alive. Another small away win for this encounter. Gibraltar vs. Armenia (UEFA Nations League) In what is probably one of the most open groups in the Nations League Gibraltar will host Armenia. Last month Gibraltar managed to win in Armenia, they also won agains Liechtenstein giving them back to back wins for the first time in history. Armenia on the other hand lost their home match against Gibraltar as described above, but then won 4-0 a few days later against group leader and unbeaten team FYR Macedonia. Those results make this match almost impossible to predict. Armenia is mos likely the favorite, also according to the bookies, but there's is definitely value for betting on Gibraltar with odds this high. Also keeping the weak away record of Armenia into consideration. The bets on Gibraltar and the draw are 5 units. Liechtenstein vs. FYR Macedonia (UEFA Nations League) On paper Liechtenstein seems to be the weakest link in this group, whereas FYR Macedonia was unbeaten in this group until they lost 4-0 away to Armenia. That result is one of the strangest I have seen in a long time and their goalkeeper was making a lot of mistakes, some seemed a bit too obvious, which means matchfixing came to a lot of people's minds. I'm still one of those who believe in the honesty of the people and just look at that match as a total off-day for Macedonia. I can see them willing to show it was all a mistake and that they want to top this group. They will win this match easily. Egypt vs. Tunisia (Africa Cup of Nations) Egypt and Tunisia are battling it out for the group win at this stage. As Tunisia won their home match against Egypt 1-0 (in June 2017 already), they are three points ahead in the ranking. Egypt's goal difference however is far better and to me the Egyptians are favorites to win at home and take over the lead from Tunisia in this group. Morocco vs. Cameroon (Africa Cup of Nations) In this group Morocco and Cameroon are the favorites, but teams have been struggling a bit. Morocco had a 2-2 draw with Comoros last month, but Cameroon also only managed a draw with them (1-1). Cameroon also was unable to beat Malawi last month (0-0). They did however beat Morocco at home in July 2017. With the World Cup experience, as well as a 3-0 (against Malawi) and 1-0 (against Comoros) win in their pocket Morocco seems to be the favorite in this match, also because Cameroon only won one match so far since Clarence Seedorf became their national coach. I made a mistake in the Head 2 Head results in the table below, it should be: Morocco 0 wins, 2 draws and Cameroon 3 wins. Source: JuiceStorm Brazil vs. Uruguay (Friendly match) This match is being played at the Emirates Stadum in London, don't be fooled, it's not being played in Brazil. Both teams are strong, generally score a lot of goals and Brazil should be considered the stronger team in general. Argentina vs. Mexico (Friendly match) Argentina at home against Mexico can be a good game with a lot of excitement. I expect quite some goals in this match too. Argentina had a tough World Cup and have also not performed very well afterwards yet. This will be their first home match since the World Cup and they will be determined to win. Mexico also did not perform too well yet after the World Cup with losses against the USA, Uruguay and Chile. Both would want to show what they can do, I expect attacking play and goals.

One day's bet #43

One day's bet #42

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