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Predictions & Picks for 20th January | 43% ROI from Recent Bets
A day ago, I shared some of my betting picks for today’s matches from different leagues. By the time of writing this post, some of those fixtures have already concluded and to my joy, 5/9 (55%) of the predictions have been on spot except for the Porto’s match which went over 2.5 goals so overall the results were great with a positive ROI of about 43% (details at the end, if I am calculating it right: Profit/Stake). Interestingly, that’s where commission-free betting exchange plays the major role, had I placed my bets on any 5% commission exchange, I would have lost some stake and my total profit could be with 41% ROI. This still excludes the factor that I found better odds on so it would not be wrong to say that this is the best exchange in the world. Well, enough singing for our lovely exchange and in today’s post, I shall share some predictions and picks for the upcoming matches (20th of January) from Mexico Liga MX (rare to find predictions), Portugal Primeira Liga and Turkish Super League so let's have a look at them. MEXICO LIGA MX Queretaro VS Monterrey This is a match between the host from 17th place in the standing with the visitors from 4th and clearly, Monterrey demonstrated exceptional results to be at the top. From their last 6 matches, they have won 4, drawn and lost 1 each, making a win percentage of above 65% whereas the hosts have only 17% of the wins but their stats are slightly better for home games but may not be a serious threat. Therefore, we can expect a comfortable win for the visitors with a possible score of 1-2Away win @1.95 Bet value: Medium-High (because the odds are same elsewhere but remember the 5% commission talk we had above) 2. Club America VS Pachuca FC Even though the current standings of the two teams are close enough with just 4 ranks difference (7-11) and their previous head-to-head games are almost at a tie for wins with 38% each but the performance of hosts during their recent games in the league is exceptionally well with over 67% wins and not to mention their high home win percentage. Both teams have high scoring potential so we can except a match with above 2.5 goals, however, the hosts may take the points home comfortably.Home win @1.62 Bet value: Medium (It is medium value only because the odds on other exchange are about 1.75 so let’s hope that these would increase soon on 3. Tigres UANL VS Cruz Azul The match is between the topper (host) and an underdog (visitor), however, if their win-draw percentages are combined then both are having comparative stats. The main difference lies in their goals scored where hosts have conceded less than 1 goal/match and have scored more than 1.9 on average while the visitors have a very low scoring/conceding rate of less than 1 i.e. the overall score is expected to be under 2.5 (2-0 most probably). The 60% wins at home by the Tigres also makes them the evident winner here.Home win @1.769 Bet Value: Medium (due to lower odds as compared to 1.85 so I have partially taken the bet) Initial Bets for Mexico Liga MX ( Portugal Primeira League Belenenses vs. CD Tondela The hosts are sitting in the first half of the table while the guests are from the second with a small rank difference of 5. Both teams in previous head-to-head matches found it hard to score so the match is expected to be a close one with less than 2.5 goals. In the recent fixtures, the host seems to have gained form as in their last match they scored 5 goals and their overall goal conceding and home win stats are better than the visitors so Home win with a possibility of a draw would be a safer option.Home win @2.0, Draw @3.0 Bet value: Low-medium 2. Sporting CP vs. Moreirense This is probably one of the toughest fixtures as both teams are from the top of the table and the visitors have better win stats in their last games as compared to the hosts but let me make things easier for you. In head-to-head matches, the visitors have seldom seen a win (15% win) and the hosts have a whopping 80% win-rate for the home fixtures, not to mention their goal scored and conceding rate so we have an obvious winner here (2-0 possibility).Home win @1.33 (because of low value in the bet, a slightly riskier bet with a small stake for under 2.5 may work) Bet value: Low 3. Boavista vs. Portimonense The hosts are at the bottom of the table while the visitors are at an about 8th position but it does not at all means that visitors are a stronger team here. Their head-to-head matches have always been a low scoring game with almost equal wins for both, they have not drawn a single match which is a bit strange. The goal scoring stats of one team is balanced with the goal conceding stats so it is a very tough call but I predict that they may face a draw this time, however, a safer option is under 2.5 goals so a small stake on both.Under 2.5 goals @1.6, Draw @3 Bet Value: Low-Medium Initial Bets for Portugal PL ( Turkish Super League Galatasaray vs. MKE Ankaragucu Even though both teams faced heavy losses but the hosts have performed slightly better than the visitors because of which they are currently at the 6th place as compared to 12th of the visitors. The hosts won the last head-to-head fixture and their home win rate is double than the away win-rate of the visitors. The value offered on betscorum is very low @1.33 and also both teams being heavy scorers the match can be above 2.5 goals so a better option would be:Small stake for above 2.5 @1.5 Bet value: Low 2. Alanyaspor vs. Sivasspor This fixture is very interesting as the host’s performance initially was very poor so they managed to take a spot in the second half of the table but their last three matches demonstrated exceptional improvement. The visitors are deadly as they have better win/draw rates than the hosts but have poorer recent performance. Above 50% of their head-to-head games have been a draw but the hosts better form and a higher percentage of home wins can make them a suitable choice. In addition, the value for host win on betscorum is much better than available elsewhere so this bet with a slight risk is of high value.Home win with odds @2.25, adding a draw would be great but the odds are lower Bet value: Medium-High Initial Bets for Turkish PL ( My Recent Bet Results: I have placed a lot of other bets on various fixtures from different leagues so if you need any assistance do let me know in comments/telegram/discord. Attached below are my recent bet results demonstrating a positive ROI as mentioned at the start of the post and hope its good enough to motivate you. I hope most of you got good results as well. Have a great weekend and fingers crossed.