Betting / portuguese primeira liga
Predictions & Picks for Eredivise and Portugal Primeira (24 February, 2019)
Once again, welcome to the predictions and picks for this week's betscorum fixtures. As usual, there is not much activity going on for the Eredivisie and Portugal Primeira leagues and I shall present you my choices for those matches so that we can join the action. In addition, as promised last time, I have calculated my overall betting summary that I would provide at the end of the post. Let's take a look at the amazing fixtures that we are going to enjoy this time. Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht vs. Excelsior The big boys of the league are going to host the underdogs who have just recently escaped the relegation zone but that is not the whole story. The hosts have lost the majority of their recent games but managed to fetch a draw against the topper PSV while, their opponents have started to mark victories and are currently in a challenging form, which makes this fixture a bit interesting. In addition, both of their recent head-to-head fixtures ended in high-scoring draws even when the hosts were in better form. In terms of goal scoring and conceding ratios, the hosts have slightly better stats but they have also played 2 more games than the visitors. The odds are surely favoring the host, however, according to the performance comparison, there is a high risk and low value (@1.29) in backing the Utrechts. Handicap +2 or small stake on away/draw would be preferable with a 50% probability of over 3.5 goals as both teams have a leaky defense.Handicap +2 Excelsior is the best option @1.85Small stake on away/draw @3.7Over 3.5 @2.12Bet Value: Medium-highBest odds available here 2. Zwolle vs. Graafschap Even though both teams are from the second half of the table and to be honest from almost the bottom, however, the hosts would have surely got your attention by now as they have gained an exceptional form with the start of the year and are beating the toppers. The visitors have not been such a terrible side as they have also marked some victories but they definitely have an issue with playing away from home as they could not bag a single victory. In their recent head-to-head fixtures, Zwolle have mercilessly beaten their opponents with at least 2+ goals which make them the favorite in this fixture. As the home win odds are fairly low (@1.5), therefore the following options can be reasonable alternatives.Handicap -1 Zwolle @2.2Bet value: Medium-highBest odds available here 3. Fortuna Sittard vs. Heerenveen This is another interesting fixture as both teams are inconsistent and unpredictable. The hosts are even though 4 ranks higher than the visitors but a considerable decline in their form was observed recently. Let not the huge number of draws by the visitors mislead us as well because those fixtures were against some of the best teams of the league including the topper PSV and they also secured a massive 4 goal draw with Ajax. There might not be a huge problem with the attacks of both teams but their defenses are where their weakness lie as both teams have conceded almost twice the goals than they have scored. Their reverse head-to-head fixture was a 3-1 win for Heerenveen but they have lost more games than the home side but again considering the tough fixtures they performed better than the hosts, therefore, the away win is a slightly better choice.Away win @2.355% chance of over 3.5 goalsBet value: MediumBest odds available here 4. NAC Breda vs. Groningen The hosts are most probably going to be relegated owing to their terrible performance so far while the visitors are comfortably sitting at the bottom of the first half of the table and have been consistently posing victories. In the reverse fixture this season, Groningens claimed their domination over Breda with a whopping score of 5-2. In addition, the away team has won most of their recent fixtures and their average scoring potential is better than the hosts. The only problem here could be their away form which is not completely terrible, however, dominated by draws. Nonetheless, my prediction model and I can predict an away win with probably both team scoring leading to a possible score of 1-2 or 1-3.Away win @258% chance of over 2.5 goals @1.85Bet value: HighBest odds available here Portugal Primeira Liga CD Feirense vs. Moreirense The home team here is suffering from consecutive defeats and is currently at almost the bottom of the table while the visitors have managed to keep their form and claimed the 5th position. The comparison of their recent fixtures, home-away forms and goals scoring/conceding potentials completely favor the visitors, however, it is not as smooth as it seems. Surprisingly, the visitors always found this opponent a hard one to crack and their recent head-to-head games ended with equal numbers of win, draw and loss. In addition, only a single goal was dispatched in each case when there was a victory for any side, which indicates a low-scoring game can be expected.Away win @2.08Under 2.5 goals @1.67Bet value: MediumBest odds available here 2. Portimonense vs. Aves The hosts have clearly lost their form as they have lost their recent 4 consecutive matches and are desperate to grab a win here. Fortunately or unfortunately, a team from the bottom of the table is visiting them to most probably snatch away another victory or at least a draw. I have reasons to believe that they would as the visitors have suddenly gained form because they were falling deep in the relegation zone. The visitors are putting immense effort to keep their form going which can be observed from their 50% more recent wins than the home team. In addition, their head-to-head fixtures were dominated by the Aves with over 60% of the wins, 100% to be exact since 2018 and that too with 3 goals to nil. Their away form and goals scoring and conceding ratio is also improving. Even though the home team are the favorites here but in my humble opinion the visitors would pose a considerable challenge and things might turn out to be in their favor.Away @3.9 (Away/Draw double chance is preferable at nice odds of 2)Handicap +1 Aves @1.85 can be another good optionBet value: HighBest odds available here 3. Vitoria FC vs. Vitoria SC The hosts are like chilled honey that doesn’t like to be dragged away from their draw zone, while the visitors often put up a heck of a challenge. However, despite their good form as I mentioned the home team pull down their opponent to one goal draw every time they faced each other recently. The Guimaraes would try their best to break the spell this time and grab a victory which is well-needed by them to stay in the fight of the top seats.Away win @2.460% chances for under 2.5 goalsBet value: HighBest odds available here My Total Betting Summary: As I mentioned last time that I shall present my total betting summary for January and February in this post and after all calculations, I am sad to say that my ROI is in the negative (-9%), however, due to proper bankroll management I was able to stake over 12K SCR with just a bankroll of 2000 SCR. Being a beginner, this is a good indication that I am getting disciplined and even though I made big mistakes of staking large amounts on teams which I thought would bring confirm victories but I have learned my lesson. No more such mistakes and I hope to buy in some SCR to make my bankroll back to at least 2K and go on with my betting activities. Hope to see you around, have a great betting weekend. Do let me know how was your betscorum journey so far?
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