Betting / stake
Season 2018-2019 Week 4 Results | 14W-13L-6P | +0.190 Units Profit
This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach. This was one of those weeks were not that much went the way I hoped it would, but I still managed to end up with some profit because the biggest bets I placed won comfortably. (Genk in their Europa League Match and 2 late Corner Over bets in Cercle Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem) For the most parts betting has been rather frustrating with the lines being air thight or set in a way the really bad teams nobody is willing to take have a tiny bit af value. One of the more interesting bets that lost but indirectly won me money (by losing less) was a late bet on Club Brugge -0.5 @ 5.344 at a 0-1 lead in minute 80'. In these situations it is a good spot to take really high odds with lower stakes instead of the normal line with regular stakes. Very often these kind of matches end in the team that have to make a goal taking risks while the better team finishes them off on the counter late in the match. The over might have been the better play, but Antwerp had not been all that dangerous until they scored the 1-1 in minute 83'. Bets like this are a good example on how always thinking about reducing risk before winning money can earn more over time and keep the swings smaller. There was 1 deserved loss and a somewhat unlucky push from the 2 under bets I took some extra on in BTC. The market moved pretty much predicetd how the matches played out with the under in Stvv vs Waasland ending 2-2 after the odds went up a lot while the odds on the under in Kortrijk vs Oostende dropped a lot and could / should have won. These things tend to be pretty reliabe and I will be using this info to hedge in and out of bets live more from now on to again decrease overall risk. Most bets shared on discord were again small or spots that left me no time to put them in official format on the SBC Discord. While I do not use unit sizes when sharing some of the positions I get in, I do always state the size somehow. This mostly translates in the words " I took some | a bit | some extra | a tiny bit | the minimum bet " only when there is no adjective it can be seen as a full stake bet. These are all more for information purpose and not so much to be followed blindly. There is a huge gap between betting profitably yourself and others duplicating these results. I plan to talk about this concept more one day. So far the season runs quite close to the expected longer term profit of the pink line which is set at +3.8% ROI. Previous Week Results Week 04 Results 33 Bets | 14W-13L-06P | Staked 16.30u | +0.190u Profit Week 03 Results 38 Bets | 22W-13L-03P | Staked 18.74u | +6.170u Profit Week 02 Results 30 Bets | 09W-17L-04P | Staked 17.41u | -3.120u Loss.. Week 01 Results 31 Bets | 14W-14L-03P | Staked 20.19u | +0.150u Profit Regular Season 2018-2019 Results 132 Bets| 59W-57L-16P | Staked 72.644u |+3.390u Profit | +4.67% ROI Let me know in the comments how your betting week was !
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