I began researching the stats for this post as a result of the rained off match between RCB and RR earlier in the week. That was then followed by a very one-sided affair as CSK romped home against Dehli Capitals but it did get me thinking that in general we have been treated to more close and exciting games than in many an IPL seasons than I can remember. So I set myself the task of answering the above question and decided to try and put together some statistics to support or disprove the idea.
All the statistics used in this analysis are my own
It's a runfest!
What the data certainly suggests is that as far as run scoring is concerned then 2019 is looking like a bumper year. The average runs per game at present (up to and including match 50) is 325, the 2nd highest it has ever been during the IPL group stage.
What is noticeable about the table below is that the IPL has delivered more runs per game in seasons where the competition has been limited to 8 teams. In 2011 there were 10 sides in the tournament and in 2012 and 2013, 9 franchises competed. There are thoughts that the IPL could/should expand to allow more franchises into the competition. There are many considerations around fan bases and viewing figures to made here but ultimately from the point of view of the quality of the cricket, the below stats suggest that the BCCI should consider carefully whether it wishes to dilute what is already a highly successful tournament both in economic and sporting terms.
It shouldn't also come as a surprise that we see run-scoring dropping off during a World Cup year. In 2011 when the WC was held in the sub-continent, the IPL followed on directly after cricket's showpiece tournament and seems to have suffered from somewhat of a squeezed schedule with some of the best players unable to play due to international commitments. A similar phenomenon then occurred in 2015 where we see run-scoring drop below 300 a game for the first time since the IPL returned to an 8 team format. 2019 is, of course, a World Cup year and we have already seen 3 of the top 10 run getters in this year's tournament leave to join up with their national teams. Would it be too great a leap to suggest that had the likes of Warner, Bairstow, De Kock, Buttler and Smith been available for the entire tournament that 2019 would have been a record year for the IPL?
Table 1 - Runs per game in the group stage of the IPL by year
To date, we have also seen the 2nd highest number of sixes per game with only last year's record haul of 872 sixes at an average of 14.5 better than this season's tally. Unless we see some more monster hitting along the lines of the recent KKR v MI game (29 sixes!) then it looks likely that this year won't surpass last, however, the number of fours being hit this year (24 a game) is slightly higher than last (23.3 per game)
Table 2 - Sixes per game in the IPL by year
Wickets Galore too!
Logic would suppose that if more runs are being scored then fewer wickets would be taken but the below suggests that is not the case with 2018 & 2019 (the 2 best years for run scoring) also seeing the 2nd & 4th highest number of wickets per game respectively. All in all, this indicates the greater risks that batsmen and possibly for that matter bowlers are now willing to take in the T20 game which again seems to be adding to the excitement of the occasion.
The statistics show what any ardent cricket lover already knows - that the T20 game is pushing the sport to new heights. Look at where we were in 2009, the 2nd lowest runs per game in IPL history, the least number of sixes and lowest number of wickets recorded, just 10 years later and the whole thinking around the game has changed leading to a product that looks likely to ensure the long-term future of the sport at least in this format.
Table 3 - Wickets per game in the IPL by year
2018 v 2019
The above figures show that in terms of runs, big hitting and wickets the last 2 seasons of IPL have definitely delivered but of course what makes a game of T20 cricket (or any cricket for that matter) really exciting is whether we are seeing a close contest at the end. The below stats suggest that while 2018 might have been leading the way on the 3 measures we've looked at so far, 2019 is seeing more closely contested games than ever before.
Last nights super over victory for the Mumbai Indians represented the 20th run chase in this year's IPL that has been completed with less than 6 balls to spare. That is already 3 more than last year and we still 9 games to go in the 2019 tournament!
Table 4 - Number of successful run chases completed in the final over
By contrast the 2018 season did give us 6 victories of 10 or less runs compared to the current tally of 4 this time around and in general, we are seeing a trend within T20 cricket of sides being more comfortable chasing a total than they are defending one which may go some way to explaining this slight shift towards closely fought matches finishing in favour of the side batting 2nd.
Perhaps a question then for another blog is what should sides and/or the cricketing authorities do to ensure that the advantage of batting 2nd doesn't become too great and spoil the competitive nature of the game?
Whatever the answer, it's clear to see that the IPL and T20 cricket, in general, are helping to create a brand which is already doing very well on the global stage and if they can continue with and improve upon the formula then the sky really is the limit. After all we now live in a world where even the Americans have been granted ODI status!
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