The upcoming Test series between Australia and India is all set to be an absolute humdinger of a sporting contest. Australia are still bearing the scars of sandpaper gate and will, of course, be without their captain Steve Smith and opening bat David Warner. Things have gone pretty badly for the boys in gold (looks like canary yellow to me but as an Englishman I'm biased) and they've been on the receiving end of some pretty heavy defeats over the last 8 months. Still this series is at home against an India side that has never won down-under and the Aussie's will be hoping that their recent dominance in their own backyard will stand them in good stead again. For India, the world's number 1 ranked Test team, this series presents a final chance for them to justify to the world that they rightly deserve to hold that title. After a long period of home Tests which they generally won with ease, they have travelled to both South Africa and England this year and been beaten. They have been competitive and showed an improvement in several key areas in those Tests, not least of all in the fast bowling department, but if they lose all 3 series away from home in 2018, the critics will rightly claim that they are a team of one trick ponies.
India's Fast Bowlers v Australia's Frail Batting Line-up
Alongside the general athleticism of the India side, probably the one key area that they have improved upon is their fast bowling options. Producing magnificent batsmen and world class spinners has not been something India have struggled to do over the years but ask people to name their top Indian pace bowlers of all time and they'd probably struggle to count them beyond one hand. However, that has all changed in recent times and India now have both talent and depth amongst their stable of quicks. The big question now is who exactly do the pick? Buvi Kumar missed the whole of the England series this summer which was a massive blow for India as he would have been ideally suited to such conditions. The likelihood is that he will come back in for the opening Test here alongside Jasprit Bumrah, with India's 2 premier bowlers bowling just 7 deliveries between them in the single warm-up game against a Cricket Australia XI. Who should complete the triumvirate is very much up for debate. I am a big fan of Shami and believe he is one of the most skilful bowlers around at the moment. If you just looked at his stats alone for the England tour you'd be tempted to think that he'd had a below average series but the truth is that he was both unlucky and often under bowled by Kohli. The question however still remains as to whether he'd get as much movement out of the Kookaburra ball as with the Duke. On the other hand Ishant Sharma was excellent against the left-handers in England's team this year and with Australia having Harris, Head, Khawaja and Shaun Marsh in their squad for the first 2 Tests it will be tempting to give the big man a crack.
In general it will be a great battle to watch India's quicks up against a relatively inexperienced and fragile Aussie line-up. Marcus Harris looks set to make his debut opening the batting alongside Aaron Finch who while being very experienced in white ball cricket is a relative newcomer to the Test arena. Perhaps even more of a concern for Aussie fans will be the fact that Finch doesn't even open the batting for his state side Victoria. That leaves the Australians looking very vulnerable up the top of the order and much therefore will depend on the more experienced Usman Khawaja who is coming off the back of a good series against Pakistan. At 31 years of age and with nearly 8 years of Test cricket behind him, now is the time for Khawaja to stand up and be the type of player that the selectors have always believed he could be.
Beyond the middle order, I still have grave doubts about the number 6 & 7 spots for Australia with Mitchell Marsh being a bit of flat track bully and Tim Paine quite frankly not good enough. If you cast your mind back to the last time India toured Australia in 2014, the home side made 500+ in the 1st innings of every Test. I don't have the stats to hand but since the abolition of timeless Tests, I'd been interested to know how many sides have lost a game when scoring 500 in the 1st innings? I bet it's not many! With India's improved pace options and Australia's fragile batting line-up, I would be highly surprised if we see run scoring of that magnitude again and that will give India a great chance of overturning their previous poor results in Australia.
Australia v Virat Kohli
A nation v one man? I think Virat would still fancy his chances! We saw in the summer how important Kohli is to India's hopes of winning games and this tour will be no different. Previous Australia sides have always made a point of trying to crack the opposition captain during big series but of course this is the new "nice" Australia so they aren't doing quite as much talking as we are all used to. However, what they have allegedly been doing is some thinking (yes, I was surprised as well!) and they have come up with a new plan of attack against Kohli based largely upon an article written by Ben Jones on Cricviz which analysed Kohli's modes of dismissal this year and concluded he was susceptible to the full ball coming back into him. You can't argue with the stats but I would also caution that you can't simply bowl straight at Kohli and wait for him to miss one, else wise you might be waiting the best part of 10hours and the game will be gone. The success that England had against Kohli was to try and pull him out and across his stumps with balls moving away and then fire the odd one fuller and moving back in. Certainly this was the case in the 2nd innings of the 1st Test when Ben Stokes had Kohli LBW, a wicket that essentially won England the match. Watching the highlights below of Kohli's wicket you can see that his head is falling across to the off-side meaning that he was always likely to miss that delivery. It will be the set-up i.e. the balls and overs prior to the one nipping back in that will be key for Australia if they are to succeed in executing their plan.
Virat Kohli v Virat Kohli
As a batsman he is head and shoulders above all others playing the game at the moment but as a captain there is definitely still a lot to improve upon. If Australia can find a way to get Kohli out and put him under a bit of pressure as a captain we could yet see this Indian side fall apart at the seams. There were already rumblings about senior players being unsatisfied with Kohli's constant tinkering with the starting 11 throughout his time as captain and there is also very much a feeling that he has his favourites within the dressing room who are given longer chances to turn around poor form than those not within his inner circle. What Kohli has done brilliantly as captain is to lead from the front, however, at some point in his career those runs will dry up and he will then have to contribute to the team in a different manner. Getting the best out of his squad will be crucial if India are to not just be competitive (as they were in SA and England) but actually to get the win. Can Virat Kohli put his ego aside and not feel the need to subvert other personalities in the dressing room or will he continue to play the role of cricketing God with all forced to bow before his authority?
The Australian Public v The Australian Team
Let's be honest it's not been a great 8 months to be an Australian cricket fan. We witnessed the outrage with which the public reacted to the ball tampering scandal and the results thereafter have been pretty poor. Heads have rolled throughout the organisation from coaching staff to senior administrators with the media and former players being fairly unforgiving towards Tim Paine and Justin Langer's plans to revamp the Aussie team. Of course, fans don't tend to complain so much when their side is winning matches and in that sense, it is crucial that Australia make a good start to this series and get the cricketing public back on board. If they don't and India get a result in the 1st Test then things could unravel pretty quickly and a squad that is already inexperienced could become flooded with players trying to make their way at the highest level of the game - that is just the reactionary nature of selection in the modern age.
Predictions and Betting
The odds that bookmakers are giving for either side to win the series are very tight but in all honesty neither is particularly attractive
You can back the Aussies at 2.47 or India 2.5, I would favour India in that regard but if you want to take a more calculated punt then these are 3 series results that I will be having a little flutter on.
You can back India to secure a series win 2-0 @ 23.00. Given that we may well get a couple of very flat pitches (for example the MCG) then it’s not unreasonable to believe that a result may not be possible in all games.
For Australia’s top batsmen, you can back new opener Marcus Harris @ 13.0. He has scored plenty of runs in domestic cricket over the last few years playing in exactly the type of conditions he will be facing now. It’s always difficult to know how a new player will adapt to the pressure of the big stage but at those odds a little punt on a top-order batsman might be worth it.
For the overall leading run scorer, Ajinka Rahane offers good value @ 26.0. He might not have a Test average of over 50 like Kohli and Pujara but his record away from home over the years has generally been better than on the sub-continent where the other 2 players mentioned have filled their boots. He is vice-captain of the India team and a key player for them, batting at number 5 he should get opportunities to make big runs.
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