Betting Tips Australia v West Indies

Preview Australia v West Indies

There was a time when a meeting between these 2 teams was a clash for the ages and on recent form perhaps we might see something similar today in the match between Australia and the West Indies. Certainly, West Indies dismantling of Pakistan in their opening match has got a lot of people excited about the prospects of a return of calypso cricket at least within the limited overs formats. Meanwhile, an Australian side that won just twice in ODI cricket in the whole of 2018 is now on a 9 match winning streak. We could be in for a classic encounter here!

The Venue - Trent Bridge

West Indies are back on the very ground where they knocked over Pakistan in just 21 overs. The Trent Bridge pitch certainly offered some bounce in that game and there was still evidence of some lift in the England v Pakistan game on Monday. With this being the 3rd match in a week to be played on the same wicket it's not unreasonable to think that the pitch will have lost a little bit of pace but at the same time both sides have the bowlers to take advantage of any bounce that may exist.

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see whether the West Indies stick with their short-pitched attack against a batting unit that is perhaps better equipped than any other in the world to deal with such an assault. I'd suggest that while the short-ball will be an effective weapon on this track that this game will see it deployed as a surprise delivery as opposed to the default ball.

Andre Russell went short with his first 16 balls against Pakistan claiming 2 wickets. Will such a deliberate and predictable plan work against Australia?

However, while the focus has been on the West Indies success with the short-ball on this ground against Pakistan, it should also be noted that that likes of Sheldon Cotterill and Oshane Thomas both found ample amounts of swing from a fuller length and Jason Holder and Carlos Braithwaite both managed to extract decent seam movement. As such West Indies seem to have more options than first meets the eye and it will interesting to see how they go up against a team that is likely to put up more of a fight than Pakistan did.

Of course with Mitchel Starc and Pat Cummins in their attack then Australia too will feel that they have the tools at their disposal to take advantage of any movement that is on offer whether through the air or off the surface and this should be a fascinating contest between two quick and skilful bowling attacks.

Form Guide

If the fight between the fast bowling units wasn't enough to whet your appetite, how about the battle between two left-handed opening batsmen in David Warner and Chris Gayle both of whom have been in tremendous form this year. Having won the purple cap in the IPL, Warner comes into this tournament in red hot form albeit that in his innings against Afghanistan and throughout the warm-up games, he has been somewhat subdued and generally happy to play second fiddle. I can imagine that this might be just the sort of match to get Warner's competitive juices flowing particularly if he gets some chin music early on in the piece.

Warner and Gayle's form in 2019 thus far. Warner has actually only played 1 full ODI for Australia in 2019 but I have included the warm-up games for perspective

On the other side is the evergreen Chris Gayle who seems to be ageing like a fine wine at present. He too had a good IPL but it is his ODI form that has really caught the eye in recent times as the above graphic shows. Again, the thought of Starc and Cummins going full throttle at one of the greatest white ball cricketers ever is something that all lovers of the sport will be keen to see and the victor of that contest could go a long way to deciding the outcome of the match.

Other key battles will include the hitting of Glenn Maxwell v Andre Russell. While I don't think there is anyone who can compete with the raw power of Dre Russell's ball striking it should be noted that Maxwell has returned to form in 2019 following a few years in which he was not an automatic pick for his nation. Unlike Russell, Maxwell decided against playing in the IPL this season in order to focus on this tournament with Australia and in fact this match will represent only Russell's 3rd appearance in a 50-over match for WI in the last 3 years. By comparison, Maxwell recently reached 100-caps for Australia, he looks focused, he looks hungry and he looks fit, unlike Dre Russell who one match into the World Cup, is already struggling with a niggle.

While Russell was lighting up the IPL Glenn Maxwell stayed playing domestic cricket in Australia and took part in an extended training camp. He is averaging 40+ in ODI cricket this year, the first time that he has averaged over 40 in a calendar year since 2015 when Australia won the World Cup on their own soil.

Elsewhere, we have the match-up between the sides 2 frontline spinners. We did see turn on this wicket from both Pakistan and England's slow bowlers who between them claimed 7 of the 17 wickets to fall in Monday's match. Zampa took 3 wickets against Afghanistan and despite coming in for some tap, the Australians won't mind if he can pick up wickets through the middle overs. By comparison, Nurse didn't bowl at all in the West Indies first match and indeed he is often only used in very particular conditions. If Australia can get away to a decent start today then they can put Nurse and the Windies bowling attack under pressure in the middle overs.

Stats for ODIs in 2019. Zampa has taken a wicket in 10 of his last 11 appearances for Australia and in 6 of those games he has 2 or more scalps. By comparison, Ashley Nurse is generally used as a plan B and in 4 games this year hasn't bowled at all.

Predictions

The excitement around West Indies opening match win has, in my opinion, pushed their odds far too short in this game meaning that I will be backing Australia to win. Beating a Pakistan side that didn't turn up is one thing, beating Australia is another. The cracks in the West Indian side's fitness are already beginning to show with Gayle and Russell nursing injuries and without them, this remains a side that has won 4 out of 9 games coming into the tournament.

Based on the analysis above, I'm also backing Adam Zampa to continue his good form and pick up at least a couple of wickets. David Warner has been biding his time over the last couple of weeks but I feel this might be the game that he really comes out of the blocks. Furthermore, I think the Aussie bowlers will be able to exploit Gayle's weakness against short-pitched bowling (with a bat that size it's very difficult for him to hook and pull 90mph+ deliveries) so I'm going for Warner to outscore the Universe Boss. Lastly, I think this pitch is slightly worn and Glenn Maxwell could well get a bowl. He is also one of the top fielders in the world so a catch could easily come his way helping to bump up his total points.

Current World Cup Betting Record

Bets made 30

Wins 19

ROI +13.11%