Betting Tips England v Bangladesh
Preview England v Bangladesh
I have more than a vested interest in the result of this game tomorrow as I'll be travelling over to Cardiff to watch the action live. England playing in Wales! That always makes me a bit nervous as our sports teams are not generally very welcome when they cross the Severn Bridge but here's hoping ......
The Venue - Sophia Gardens
The 2 games that we have had here so far have been low scorers with seam and swing being a big feature. Sri Lanka were skittled by New Zealand for just 136 in what were near ideal conditions for their bowling attack, while the same Sri Lankan team collapsed to 201 all out on Tuesday against Afghanistan before bowling the opposition out for 152. Are we going to see another match where ball dominates bat?
It's worth noting that in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan we are talking about arguably the 2 weakest batting line-ups in the competition and the 2 sides who are probably most vulnerable to a bit of nip off the pitch and movement through the air. I don't think there are any demons in this pitch and actually, despite the lateral movement the ball appears to be coming onto the bat quite nicely suggesting that batsmen with sound techniques and good shot selection will get full value for their strokes.
Granted New Zealand had little to no pressure on them during their chase here in the opening game but their openers knocked off 136 with relative ease. Even Sri Lanka were looking comfortable at 144-1 against Afghanistan before Mohammed Nabi's gentle off-breaks ripped through their fragile middle order. I don't expect that either England or Bangladesh will fold so easily regardless of the conditions tomorrow.
Speaking of conditions, today has been absolutely foul weather wise with heavy rain throughout most of the UK. Fortunately, that weather front is passing by overnight but as you can see there is the chance of the odd shower still lingering around in the morning. Given that the pitch has been fairly green and there might be some cloud cover around, will England be tempted to put Bangladesh into bat? It'd be something of a high-risk venture that would require England to make early inroads into what is a very experienced and talented top-order.
From their point of view Bangladesh would probably be happy to defend again as they have done in their first 2 matches. Regardless of the pitch and overhead conditions, Bangladesh don't really have the seam options to take full advantage of a "traditional English wicket". Mustafizur and Saifuddin have bowled brilliantly in this tournament but they are more masters of the change-up rather than being able to run in, hit a length and nibble it around on off-stump and as such, they'd be more than happy to bowl on a worn wicket with runs on the board to defend.
<grammarly-extension class="_1KJtL" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; pointer-events: none; z-index: 1;">The other question is whether the Bangladesh spinners will have an effect at this ground? As noted above, Mohammed Nabi picked up 3 wickets in an over to torpedo the Sri Lankan innings but in general this a venue where spinners have to be quite canny in their line and particularly their length. The straight boundaries are very short at Sophia Gardens so expect anything that is tossed up to be deposited into the River Taff that runs justs behind the ground. On that same note the boundaries square are very long which means that once the initial attempts to swing and seam the ball are over, we will see a lot of balls bowled into the wicket forcing batsmen to hit to the longer boundaries.
Form Guide
I'd expect and sincerely hope that England will come out a focused and determined unit in this match following their defeat against Pakistan. They bowled ok in that match, at least a couple of their batsmen in Root and Buttler batted very well but their fielding was terrible and you feel that they lost most of the crucial moments in that game. Were they a little arrogant and overconfident against Pakistan, a side that they had beaten 4-0 in a recent series and seen demolished by West Indies thereafter? If that is the case then England will struggle to win this World Cup. The best sides I have seen in my lifetime are the Aussie teams of the late 90s earlier 00's who won time and time again. There was never any let-up, they never took their boot off the throat of the opposition and in doing so they crushed the will of all their opponents.
As Ender Wiggin says in Orson Scott's classic science fiction novel after being asked why he kept kicking a boy after his initial blow had already sent him to the floor
“Knocking him down won the first fight. I wanted to win all the next ones, too."
In selection terms it will be interesting to see which bowling attack England go with tomorrow. Mark Wood was probably their best bowler against Pakistan but you would imagine that Plunkett's back of a length style of bowling would be suitable for this ground given it's strange dimensions. There is genuine talk that England could go into this match without Adil Rashid who over the past 4 years has been England's most effective wicket-taking bowler in ODIs. As shown below, Rashid's form of late has not been great but there is every reason to expect that if England are to be successful in this tournament they will need him in the side. It's often been reported that Rashid is a tender flower that needs nurturing both on and off the pitch. Eoin Morgan has thrown his full support behind the leg-spinner in recent years and it has paid dividends, is now a good time to drop him?
Familiar failings also came back to haunt Bangladesh as they lost to New Zealand in their second match. They were presented a golden opportunity to dismiss Kiwi captain Kane Williamson and leave the Black Caps in deep trouble but as has been the case on so many occasions through the last few years, nerves got the better of them and they fluffed their lines. Expectation it seems doesn't rest very well on the shoulders of these talented players. One thing that they do have in their favour is experience, in fact, Bangladesh have the most ODI caps of any squad currently playing in the World Cup but despite all those matches what this side appears to lack is knowledge of how to win the big moments in these high-profile games.
Given that England have lost early wickets to spin in both their games so far, I have no doubt that Bangladesh will open with Mehedi Hasan as they have in previous games and potentially bring in Shakib Al Hassan who got in on the act against New Zealand by dismissing both openers. The challenge for Roy and Bairstow will be to get on top of those 2 bowlers early on, hit them over the top and force Bangladesh captain Mortaza to bring on the likes of Saifuddin and The Fizz earlier than he would want to.
Predictions
I'm going to back England to come back strongly from their defeat against Pakistan in this one. There's too much talent and power within this side for them to be subdued for 2 games in a row.
Moeen Ali's form with bat so far has been pretty poor but then that how it is with the left-hander plays, he's rubbish for a couple of games then brilliant the next. With Rashid likely to sit this one out, Moeen will also be England's primary spin option. Mushfiqur Rahim has looked in good form and but for a needless run-out against New Zealand he would likely have gone on to make another significant contribution.
Current World Cup Betting Record
Bets made 34
Wins 20
ROI +5.7%
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