Preview England v South Africa
Betting Tips England v South Africa
The long wait is almost over! 4 years ago England were recovering from the humiliation of crashing out of another 50-over World Cup early on as their cricketing style, akin to something from the 1980s, fell woefully short of the required standard. Fast-forward to 2019 and England, the host nation, have undergone a metamorphosis of colossal proportions and in doing so have pushed the boundaries of ODI cricket to new levels. No side has scored 350+ on more occasion since the last World Cup final than England with the same team posting a world record 481 this time last year. Their victory against India last summer granted them the number 1 ranking in the world and makes them favourites to take the title. Will they lift the trophy for the first time in their history?
Their opponents South Africa are also perennial underachievers who have a reputation for choking at the crucial moments of these tournaments. They've lost a few crucial players between now and last time out but they enter this contest as a decent outside bet to reach the knockout stages. While historically they might have struggled in the later part of tournaments they have won 6 out of their last 7 opening games in the World Cup and an upset here against the hosts would put them well on their way for success in 2019.
Venue - The Oval, London
England played their final warm-up game at the Oval on Monday in a match in which they hammered Afghanistan by 9 wickets. That game was played on the side of the square so the pitch won't be exactly the same but we can assume that the Oval (as per usual) will provide a wicket with even bounce. However, in recent years the venue hasn't provided the pace that it was once renowned for and having been to watch several domestic matches at the Oval this summer it has been a little on the slow side.
In 6 of the last 9 matches completed the side batting first has scored more than 300 and with the weather set fair and 2 powerful sides in operation it seems likely that a score of around 320-340 would be par for the team batting first.
South Africa, however, won't have particularly fond memories of this venue as they crashed to a heavy defeat against India here 2 years ago during the Champions Trophy
The weather forecast looks set to be cloudy with a South Westerly breeze but fortunately, it would appear set dry. While the cloud may allow a bit of early swing, I would imagine the breeze alongside the white ball will largely negate any sizeable movement.
Form Guide
South Africa are on a fine run of form having won their last 6 ODIs as well as a further warm-up match. However, it should be pointed out that 6 of those 7 games came against a Sri-Lankan team who England also whitewashed in their own back yard last winter. England are an opposition on another level entirely and we will no doubt see South Africa's middle order and back-up bowling tested more than it has been so far in 2019.
Another test for SA will be to see whether they can withstand the pressure of England's batting power. Sri Lanka provided very little opportunity for the Proteas to test the depth of their batting line-up and you feel that it is in the middle to late order that they look most vulnerable. Quinton De Kock and Faf Du Plessis are the star men for the visitors but if England can limit them then the onus will fall on the likes of David Miller who has scored just 142 runs in ODIs this year.
By contrast, England's top 6 are all in fine form with Roy, Bairstow, Morgan and Buttler all having scoring rates this year beyond that of Quinton de Kock who is SA's best striker. However, up against the likes of Rabada and Tahir, this match will pose a real challenge to those players. If there is an area that England might be able to target, it is the South African back-up bowling that lacks a huge amount of experience both in English conditions and under the pressure of the World Cup. Will England's batsmen reign themselves in against the SA's star attackers or will it be a case of swinging from the hip for from off?
Predictions
I don't think that the odds on offer for the result represent particularly good value for money and a lot will depend on the toss. I think England chasing are good value @1.5 but if they are batting first it'll be a much closer contest. I might well place a live bet on the match result as it progresses.
Instead, I've decided to back Faf Du Plessis to outscore Joe Root in the match. Faf has been in good form of late and Root has looked a little scratchy at the crease. Furthermore, I'm backing Ben Stokes to get 45points or more (1 run = 1 point, 1 catch = 10points, 1 wicket = 25 points) as I'd expect him to raise his game for the big match. He also fields in so many crucial positions that he's likely to get a catch and he may bowl a few more overs with the overcast conditions.
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