Betting Tips India v Pakistan
Preview India v Pakistan
It's difficult to think of a grudge match that is bigger than this fixture. Over a billion fans will be cheering on their respective teams against the backdrop of a regional power struggle and a nuclear arms race. Such geopolitical tensions have meant that this fixture is now something of a rarity, reserved for tournament cricket at neutral venues but in an era when sport is literally shoved down our throats by governing bodies and broadcasters alike that scarcity only serves to heighten the excitement surrounding this game.
The Venue - Old Trafford, Manchester
The tournament now begins to move North with this being the first game at Old Trafford. In international terms, the ground has been underutilised in recent years due in part to a restructuring of the stadium but also as a result of it losing out to other venues around the country in it's bid to host games. Old Trafford, for example, was not used for the Champions Trophy 2 years ago and the 2 most recent games involved England completing their whitewash over the Aussies last year and a comfortable win against a poor West Indies side the year before that.
Therefore to get an indication on how this pitch might play it is worthwhile looking at how local side Lancashire have faired in this year's domestic 50 over competition.
Many of the wickets to have fallen at this venue in this year's Royal London One-Day Cup have gone to exciting young England quick Saqib Mahmood who took 13 wickets at Old Trafford at an astonishing average of just 11.92. Saqib's raw pace has been the perfect accompaniment to the control and skill of the senior pros at Lancashire including James Anderson and Graham Onions. Born in Birmingham both Saqib's parents are of Pakistani origin and Lancashire has a strong history of successful fast bowlers from that part of the world. Both Wasim Akram and Junaid Khan enjoyed successful and extended spells at the club and I've no doubt their advice will have been sort by Pakistans current battery of left-armers on how to get the most out of this surface
Given the amount of rain that has been around of late and the likelihood of some overcast conditions during this match, it is reasonable to expect that the seamers on both sides will be able to extract some early movement off the pitch and through the air. Pakistan choose not to play their premier spin bowler, Shadab Khan against Australia in overcast conditions, a decision that backfired. Will he come back into this side despite the seam-friendly conditions that are likely to be on offer? India also have Mohammed Shami waiting in the wings and I am sure given Pakistan's recent troubles against quick bowling they will consider him as a substitute for Kuldeep Yadav.
The forecast for this match is not great with a heavy band of rain moving through the area overnight to be replaced by scattered showers during Sunday morning. It looks like the game will start on time but I think we'd be very lucky not to have some interruption in play as the day goes on. The real concern thereafter is that heavy more persistent showers will be rolling in by around 4pm meaning that one way or the other, this match is not going to go the full 100 overs. If we get enough overs to constitute a game then DLS seems likely to be a factor and as such the toss as well the ability to monitor the weather and manage the game will be crucial to the result here.
Form Guide
While we'll get to see some stellar batsmen in this game what I am really looking forward to is the battle between the in-form seamers from both sides. Mohammed Amir wasn't even a sure thing to make Pakistan's World Cup squad a couple of months ago but he now finds himself as the tournament's leading wicket taking having bowled well in all 3 matches that his side have completed. His 5-30 against Australia were career-best figures for the left-armer and the best figures for a Pakistani in the World Cup since Wasim Akram took 5-28 against Namibia in 2003 and I think even Wasim would admit that there is a slight gulf in class between the 2 opponents!
On the other side, India have Jasprit Bumrah and Buvi Kumar both of whom have looked in terrific form thus far with 5 wickets a piece from their 2 appearances. Bumrah lead the way against South Africa with an opening burst that decapitated the South African batting line-up before Buvi's metronomical performance against Australia strangled the life out of their attack-minded batsmen. Perhaps the biggest advantage India have in this match is the back-up bowling that follows. Chahal has taken 6 wickets with an economy of just 5.65 in the competition thus far and while Kuldeep has just the solitary scalp to his name he is conceding just 5.35 an over. Comparatively speaking while the likes of Wahab Riaz, Hassan Ali and Shaheen Afridi have all picked up wickets they are all going at over 7 an over, offering captain Sarfraz Ahmed very little control.
Targeting the lesser bowlers has already proved an effective method for this Indian side as the below stats demonstrate and I would be highly surprised if we didn't see something similar from them in this match.
In head to head terms, India have been convincing winners in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams going back to the group stages of the last World Cup. However, Pakistan will take comfort their famous win the last time these 2 sides met in England during the final of the Champions Trophy. Of course on the big occasions, you want your big names to stand up and be counted for and both teams can call upon players who have experience of doing well in this fixture over a sustained period of time.
Predictions
With the weather forecast as it is, I am going to be conservative with my predictions for this game and just back India to win outright. The team looks in total control at the moment and have notched up good wins against strong opposition. By comparison, Pakistan have been at their mercurial best in getting beaten by West Indies then defeating the favourites England. I felt they let a golden opportunity slip against Australia in the week and you wonder what impact that loss will have on the confidence of the team particularly under the pressure that this fixture always presents.
I'm enjoying some success with live bets at the moment and would advise anyone who is interested to check out the runs per over markets that bookies are running. In my opinion, the algorithm that the likes of Coral are using to calculate the odds is a little bit off and generally gives too much significance to the innings run-rate as opposed to the economy rate of an individual bowler. Therefore, if you can pick up a bowling change in the middle overs then you can get some very competitive odds.
Current World Cup Betting Record
Bets 44
Wins 27
ROI +10.35%
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