Cricket / predictions
Statistical Analysis and Live Betting on the IPL
Cricket is a game of variables. Pitch type, atmospheric conditions, ground dimensions, batting preferences, bowling restrictions and field positions are just some of the variables that players and captains must consider with every single delivery that is bowled in a match. Understanding risk and reward is also at the heart of what makes a good cricketer. For example, you will often hear batsmen talking about their "% shot" in any given scenario as they weigh up the variables and come to a conclusion about which particular stroke is likely to deliver the best results. Equally, we see modern day bowlers striving for a greater number of variations within their armoury specifically to ensure that they are harder to predict. source As such, betting on cricket is good fun because every single delivery is a statistical battle within the larger context of a period of the game and ultimately the match itself. If you can gain an insight into the way a batsman, bowler or captain is thinking i.e. the way they are trying to find a solution to get the most from those variables, then you can gain an advantage with your betting. Much of that insight comes from watching and playing the game over several decades but at the same time, I use some statistical analysis to back up my gut feelings. The below represents my own statistical analysis of the first 28 games of the IPL and is designed to find value in match outcomes by betting on them during the game itself (live betting). Usually, I am looking for opportunities of value odds at around the half-way point of a run chase (see example below). Run-rate 'for' in the Powerplay Run-rate 'against' in the Powerplay Run-rate 'for' in the final 5 overs Run-rate 'against' in the final 5 overs Putting the stats to work The game between DC and SRH on Sunday was a great example of how to use these kinds of stats to beat the bookmakers The form of Bairstow and Warner is the obvious factor in SRH’s success in the powerplay (ranked 2nd). However when you compare that to their shambolic performance with both bat and ball in the final 5 overs of matches then there was a clear error in the live odds being offered by several bookmakers on this fixture. The implied chances of SRH winning their match against DC this week at the 10 over mark of their run chase was 66%. I don't have a specific model for predicting the result of live cricket matches but the above stats suggest that at best SRH probably had a 50% chance of winning. The odds offered seemed to have ignored 2 key facts Firstly, SRH don’t have power hitters at 5,6 and 7 as is demonstrated by their low ranking (7th) in the run-rate for in the final 5 overs graph. This isn’t a new phenomenon, despite reaching the final last year they struggled to put big runs on the board and again were reliant on their top order (Williamson and Dhawan) to post a competitive total. Secondly, DC are ranked 2nd in the final 5 overs against stats with Rabada and Morrison forming a lethal partnership that is both taking wickets and preventing runs. Ultimately SRH fell apart as they have done on several occasions this year to hand DC a comfortable 39 run victory and a nice profit for those that spotted the bookies error. Are you betting on the IPL this year? What other conclusions can you draw from the above stats?
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