Hey Sports & Daily Fantasy Sports Fans!

Two years ago I waded into the Daily Fantasy Sports craze and splash around for a bot before quitting town about 30%. Looking back, that's actually not too bad considering that most players are losers, and to far greater degree than just 30%.

After a long, busy summer, I ended up with a little more free time. I made a small deposit on DraftKings and played a few baseball DFS games and did much better. I broke even.

After a few weeks, however, I ended up on a killer run that took my bankroll up 20%. Playing and winning at both MLB and NFL showdown modes, I was convinced I was a DFS genius! (Just kidding...)

So here I am, two months in, and I am on another breakeven run. It could be worse. What it has done, however, has fueled my interest to improve. I'm reading more. Back testing. And experimenting. And I've augmented my DFS bankroll to give myself a little breathing room while I play.

I'm playing low stakes, but my drive to win isn't lessened by my budget approach. Those who have followed me on Steemit know that I like processes, and I'm fairly transparent as to how I approach methodology, reporting out on what works, what doesn't, and what I'll try next. I'm not trying to impress anyone, or build a following that will one day pay me for picks. I'm just a simple guy who likes the sweat, excel spreadsheets, and has a buck, or two, to put into play. And I really enjoy the conversations...

But I digress...

I'm running three slates tonight in DFS. Two NFL Showdowns and one MLB Showdown line-up. I'm posting today about my favorite line-up which I've entered in a GPP to win one of 100 NFL Millionaire Super Satellite tickets. I'm using one of the $.25 tickets I've earned playing on Draft Kings, so it's not costing me a cent. However, I am submitting it in a Double Up cash contest, too, as I think this one is a winner.

NFL Showdown (captain Mode) Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers.

This pick is my favorite with 84.84 FPTS. My inquiries into the successful components of winning line-ups points first to the need to determine the type of game one is looking at. Will it be a big-scoring, QB dominated match like last night's Patriots vs. Kansas City game? Will it be a bone-breaking, defensive grind like Week 5's Buffalo vs. Tennessee? Or perhaps its going to be a rather lopsided affair like tonight's Green Bay vs. San Francisco contest, with the spread of 9+ points?

Because we're looking at a heavy favorite tonight, here's my rationale for posting this line-up...

I want the favorite QB in the line-up. Aaron Rodgers ($12.2k) is likely to throw a lot in the first half, using his weapons, WR Devonte Adams ($11.6k) & Randall Cobb, to score early and often. And since it'll be hard to buy both receivers, I'm taking Adams as Cobb has been injured and is questionable as to how effective he might be.

As the game progresses, and with a sizable lead, I'd expect the Packers to start chewing up the clock. Looking towards the run game, I'll go with RB Aaron Jones ($7.2k) to see more action than usual, and hopefully earn 2X or more points per thousand in salary.

More than not, in blow-outs, successful line-ups include the losing QB. CJ Beathard ($13.2k) isn't Jimmy Garrapolo, but one can expect that he's going to toss a TD, or two, on his way to the locker room tonight. Popping him in as the Captain is both a less expensive option than Rodgers or Adams, and offers us some potential extra upside if SF ends up being competitive in this one since he'll earn 1.5X points for our slate.

Leaning on the blow-out potential, though, I'll play Packers as the defensive option at $4200. That's 2x points for every 1k in salary, and again, exposes us to a nice upside if Beathard tosses a few interceptions or drops the ball as he did last week.

And finally, with just $1400 left in salary to spend, I really like TE Lance Kendricks as a GPPish type pick. With the potential for Cobb to see limited targets, and with TE Jimmy Graham also recovering from injuries, Kendricks might see a few targets that could add a handful of points to our score for super cheap money. Value is the name of the game, folks.

Thanks for reading my post, and please leave a comment if you found this post interesting or ridiculous. I'm learning, hopefully earning, and looking forward to tonights NFL and MLB games.

Good luck with your bets and favorite teams!

@braveboat