Source

Foreword!

Well it appears that some people do think that it is easy and not time consuming to write a prediction model or post. Well it is time consuming.

Maybe people do think that statistical prediction model doesn't belong on a sport blogging website. Well it does.

If we take a look at some examples:

  • http://forebet.com
    Well forebet has an alexa ranking of 5996 world wide. It gets more than 6 million visits per month.
  • http://predictz.com
    This site only has 2 millions views per month!

As you can see the market for this kind of information is huge. And my intention is to:

  • allure people from outside Scorum to Scorum
  • to give insight about what a poisson model thinks of the upcoming games of the Premier League and Jupiler Pro League
  • to give an extra tool for the ones who are planning to bet on these games.

A statistical model is a statistical model. Each model has 2 part. A prediction part and a report part. Because transparency is important.

I do admit that I am not a technical designer, I am an analyst. That's probably why these posts do look sometimes a bit amateurish.The reason why screenshots are used, is because for the moment the Scorum interface doesn't allow table creation!

The analysis within the prediction post are within the predictions. Because I did want to give some more detailed information, which also could be valuable, to a punter I did add the statistics part and the ranking part. Because I don't want to give the scorum community the impression that these posts are hit and run post, which they aren't.

These models are my hobby!

If people have advice how I can improve these post, feel free to let me know!

Statistics

Round 19 did give us only 4 home wins. The away teams didn't do much better with 3 away wins. And 3 games did end up in a draw! Crystal Palace and Cardiff even did brings us a scoreless draw!

In 7 games both teams did find the net, just like 7 games did end up with more than 2.5 goals.

The first part of the competition has been played now and I am curious if the Premier League can keep on crushing the 4 year averages.

Standings

Well there was a big surprise in round 19. Manchester City not only lost their second game of the season but also lost their second place. City has only collected 3 points out of their last 4 games. We have to remember that no team was capable of prolonging their Premier League title since Manchester United did in 2009.

The gap between Liverpool, the proud leader and the rest of the pack now is already 6 points. Still too early to celebrate for them!

Manchester United won back to back now, bringing them back to 6th place. But still 6 points behind Arsenal on number 5. They are also 4 point ahead of the 7th place. So they are at the moment the in betweeners!

At the bottom of the table. Burnley, Fulham and Huddersfield did switch places but still are the ones on the relegation places. Crystal Palace are moving in the safer zones with a 7 point gap with the relegation places. Newcastle, Southampton and Cardiff are still within striking distance from the team on a relegation place.

Round 20

Not much time to rest for the teams after the Boxing day games. Within a time span of 6 days, 2 complete rounds will be played. This should be an advantage for the bigger teams! This because they do have more balanced squads and can afford it to give some players some rest!

Cheers,
Peter