Well as promised the results of the Lars week 11 and 12.
Let's start with the obvious week 11.

Week 11

Not a week to be proud of. Both models made a loss. The one worse than the other.
But we also have to look at the highlights. The 1X2 prediction from the model based on the last 4 season results is a season high with 7,55 units of profit and 9 out of 10 predictions correct!

Week 12

An even worse week than week 11. A little bit more green in the model of the 4 last seasons than the model based on the current season results. The model based on the current season now has 2 consecutive weeks without a correct score prediction :(

Season 2018-2019

But as a sports betters and a statistical person, I do know that we have to keep the bigger picture in our view point.

The right model is something to be proud off, the left model ... euhm ... not.

Still lots of weeks to go, so the models could both go in opposite directions.

We will have a more insight halfway the season.

Cheers,
Peter