From this season, UEFA have changed their rules and qualification system for Champions League and Europa League. It is very confusing and only God himself and UEFA knows how it works. For me, it took a while until I understood how this works. So, we have now champions route and league route. I wouldn't explain those new rules in this article, but if you not familiar with it, you can read all about it here.
Second qualification round is finished, now we know all teams and pairs, who will fight for UCL Play-off's. Two teams are already seeded in Play Off round, PSV and Young Boys, who will wait for 10 more clubs from the 3rd round. Let's check the games we have:
Red Star Belgrade vs Spartak Trnava
Serbian champion will play against Slovakian side Spartak. Last year knock out stage participant in Europa League, are considered as slight favorites here but Spartak shows us that they can play against favorites, what they proved by eliminating Legia Warzaw. Big opportunity for both teams, because participant in Play Off's will secure at least group stage in Europa League. Here, I give advantage to Red Star. They are simply more quality team and hard to play against.
Astana vs Dinamo Zagreb
Both teams are regular participant of European competitions in the last few years. Dinamo furiously eliminated Hapoel Ber Sheva in 2nd round with total score of 7-2, while Astana kick out Mitljand from further competition with tight total score of 2-1. I give advantage here to Dinamo.
Qarabag vs Bate Borisov
Not teams they used to be in last years, specially Qarabag. They had few good seasons behind and that's all. Now they going to face with Belarus side Bate Borisov, last year Europa League participant. Qarabag eliminated Albanian club Kukesi while Bate struggled with Helsinki with total score of 2-1. One way or another I think that Bate could and should eliminate Qarabag here.
PAOK vs Spartak Moscow
PAOK surprised me with 3-0 away win against Basel. Surely they proved us that they are not kidding. Two wins against regular UCL participant is for every praise. Now they going to face, no more then Spartak Moscow and surely in this moment will have more difficult task ahead then Basel who's clearly is not in form. PAOK is in form, and this is first competitive match for Russian team. I give small advantage to PAOK here.
Celtic vs AEK
Same problems share Spartak and AEK. They starting European games in this round. AEK are facing Celtic who was simply much better team in two legs against Rosenborg. It is hard for me to predict team who will go through this round. On one hand, AEK is much more serious and stronger team then Rosenborg, but on the other, Celtic already played few competitive matches. It is going to be tough here, but Celtic could go out as winner from this round.
Malmo vs Videoton
Not to attractive pair for most people, but they showed us that can play football. Malmo have beaten Romanian Cluj, while Videoton have eliminated bookmakers favorited Ludogorets. Both teams are passed with very tight results. In this pair I'm giving advantage to Hungarian team.
Slavia Praha vs Dynamo Kyev
Neither of them have played competitive European match yet. This is first. Can say that here we don't have favorites. I assume that one goal will decide overall winner, maybe even penalty shootout. Or even both games will end with draw, but one will pass cause have scored more away goals. I think that would be Dynamo Kyev.
Standard Liege vs Ajax
This is tough one also. Ajax already eliminated Sturm with total score of 5-1, but they next job will not be so easy. Belgium side enters UCL qualification from this round and surely it not going to be easy for them also. I think that Ajax will skip this obstacle and qualify for Play Off's.
Benfica vs Fenerbahce
This is the derby of the round. Maybe not sounds fair that these teams play in qualification because they are regular participants of UCL also as EL finals, but they will need to fight against each other for Play Off's. Surely we will see best football from all pairs in 3rd round. Really hard one, but I think that Benfica will manage to go through.
Salzburg vs Shkendija
No doubt that last year Europa League semi finalist is favorite here. From all this pairings, this is the only one where I can say, ok, we have really big favorite here. Even Shkendija have eliminated Sheriff, they are submissive team here. Shouldn't be surprises here. Salzburg will go through.
I think that UCL Play Off's will be something like this:
-PSV (Netherlands)
-Yang Boys (Switzerland)
-Red Star (Serbia)
-Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia)
-Bate Borisov (Belarus)
-PAOK (Greece)
-Celtic (Scotland)
-Videoton (Hungary)
-Dynamo Kyev (Ukraine)
-Ajax (Netherlands)
-Benfica (Porugal)
-Salzburg (Austria)
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