Soccer / picks

Cagliari vs Roma (Serie A) Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 ( 3 units ) I believe we will see an open match with Cagliari full of confidence winning their last 2 matches and Roma have not been that solid lately. Cagliari scored in 7 out of their last 9 matches. Roma is strong offensively and can score against any side in Serie A but they need a good result here if they want to get closer to european spots. Their defense is weak so I expect Cagliari to also score as they did against Juventus, Napoli and Inter. Villarreal vs Barcelona (La Liga) Barcelona to win @ 1.68 ( 2 units ) Even with Villarreal's domination at home I expect Barcelona to win with more or less difficulty. Villarreal are already looking forward to Europa League semi finals and their focus won't be 100% for this match. Barcelona on the other hand only have this competition to win and after their early Champions League farewell they want to dominate Spain once again. I see value in this Barcelona odd especially when looking at the context of both sides and their desire for this game. Braga vs Sporting (Portuguese Primeira Liga) Sporting DNB @ 1.90 ( 2 units ) Two of the better teams in Portugal have been struggling a bit in the last few matches. Braga losing too many points against weak sides and weak at the back while Sporting with a roster full of young talents are pressured to win the title after 19 years in the waiting room... The squad is feeling a bit of the pressure and losing some points but they keep being solid at the back and I think that will be the changing factor for this match. Braga are not with the desire that Sporting are and the visitors know that the 3 points here can bring the title a lot more closer to Alvalade so I see them winning the match and if they draw we get our money back Turkish Super Lig Fenerbahce v Kasımpaşa — Under 3.5 goals (-190/1.53) Fener and Kasımpaşa go over this total only 24% and 23% of the time, respectively. So just based on the percentages, this seems like a safe choice. Each side has hit this total just once in their last five matches. Plus, one of Kasimpasa's joint top goalscorers is injured and will miss this match. These clubs have played three times since the COVID pause and haven't surpassed 3.5 goals in any of those matches. Ligue 1 Angers v Monaco — Monaco to win (-210/1.48) This is a bigger price for an away side than I usually go for but I am comfortable picking Monaco here. They have won their last four matches by at least three goals each, and have a similarly excellent win rate as the away side compared to their home record. Angers meanwhile have lost three of their last five with the other two being draws. They've also lost half of their home matches this season and only two clubs in the division have more home defeats, and both of those are in the relegation zone. Monaco beat Angers 3-0 in the reverse fixture. Both clubs played cup games in the midweek and have some injury concerns but you would expect Monaco to have better depth, so that doesn't scare me off. Leeds Utd - Man Utd (EPL) o1.5 Cards for Leeds Utd @ 1.83 Leeds known for their aggressiveness have accumulated 12 or more fouls in their last 8 games, with getting 1 card or more in each of their 8 games. 5 of the 8 games were played at home. Their first home game ended with 1 card, the 2nd with 3, the 3rd with 3, the 4th with 1 and the 5th with 2. The first game of two against Man United this season ended with 0 cards for Leeds, so for that to happen again is highly unlikely, once again going for the over.