Soccer / poisson model

Jupiler Pro League: Round 26 preview, predictions and experiment!
5 more rounds to go. It really is money time in the Jupiler Pro league! It is almost certain who will relegate but there are a lot of team fighting for a spot in Play Off I. Also for the team already that most likely will be in there, there still is a lot at stake. Every point counts!The ranking! Genk is guaranteed to be in the Play off 1 as only team. Club Brugge and Antwerp most likely. Probably the same goes for Standard. But below that 4 maybe 5 teams are battling for the remaining 2 tickets. St Truiden has the best papers but also maybe the toughest program. For Anderlecht POI is a must so there the pressure will be the highest. Charleroi is currently not in the best form of the season and we can't rule out Mouscron! Let's see what the model thinks about it!Prediction Standard and Lokeren will kick off this round on Friday evening! Both do need to points. Standard to keep a healthy advantage of the other teams battling it out to reach PO 1 and Lokeren is really fighting for their existence! The model predicts an easy victory for Standard but it will be tougher than the model thinks! From the Saturday game the ones of St Truiden and Gent do look interesting. St Truiden has to visit Zulte Waregem. This is a game which could go both ways! Waregem is out of the relegation danger so they can play freely, while St Truiden will feel the pressure the stay in the top 6. A draw is very well possible. Gent also needs the point for PO1 but Waasland-Beveren did see Lokeren winning last weekend and closing the gap to 5 points. Yeah still 5 points but if Lokeren does surprise Standard on Friday, everything will be possible! While Sunday doesn't have the label of Super Sunday, 2 great games! Genk will face Club Brugge in Bruges, while Antwerp can give Anderlecht another blow in their race to PO 1. Club Brugge and Genk both had an Europa League game on Thursday but Club did play this game at home while Genk had an away game. This will give Brugge a small advantage. Another important factor will be if Pozuelo will play for Genk or not. Both sides are threatening each ther with a law suit. Pozuelo can make a transfer to Toronto and Genk does want to prevent this! If Pozuelo will start I do give Genk the advantage! Antwerp will have no trouble with Anderlecht. Both teams did loose some points during the past games. But the home crowd and the fighting spirit will give Antwerp the 3 points!The Goliath experiment! 0 out of 2 for the moment. So a loss of 8,4 units! Let's see if this weekend will be better! Here is the betting slip! Not the highest odds this time. All 8 correct will be good for a payout of around 173 units. Have a nice weekend! Cheers, Peter